Chen Lin, Guo Xi, Zou Hengyu, Zhu Anfan, Huang Xingyu
Key Laboratory of Farmland Improvement and Quality Enhancement, Jiangxi Provincial Department of Science and Technology, Nanchang, China.
Faculty of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2025 Jun 18;16:1579546. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1579546. eCollection 2025.
Fructus Aurantii (FA) is a valuable medicinal material used in traditional China medicine. Predicting the suitable distribution areas of FA and identifying its potential distribution patterns driven by various environmental factors are crucial for the selection of planting sites and maintenance of medicinal quality. Here, the maximum entropy model was used to predict the potential distribution of FA in Jiangxi Province, China under current and future climate conditions. A total of 105 geographical distribution data of FA were collected through field investigation and 32 environmental variables were obtained from public databases. The maximum entropy model showed high prediction accuracy when 16 environmental variables were selected (AUC = 0.932). The habitat suitability of FA was prominently affected by climate, which surpassed topography and soil factors. Maximum temperature of the warmest month, annual temperature range, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation coefficient of variation, elevation, aspect, and soil organic carbon were the key factors shaping the geographic distribution of FA. Among them, maximum temperature of the warmest month (16.9%), followed by annual temperature range (16.1%), made the greatest contribution to model predictions. In the current climate background, the total potential suitable area for FA covered 6.30 × 10 km of garden land. Under future climate warming scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways 245, 585), the potential suitable area was predicted to move southward and expand twice in 2040-2080, with notable increase in moderately and poorly suitable areas. Low hilly areas at higher elevations with moist cool conditions and gentle undulations would become more suitable for future introduction and planting of FA. Regionalized strategies for different suitable planting areas were proposed taking into account future climate change. All data are available in Mendeley Data (DOI: 10.17632/s9wsnn2xcn.1). Code is available at https://github.com/mrmaxent/Maxent.
枳壳是一种在中国传统医学中使用的珍贵药材。预测枳壳的适宜分布区域并识别其受各种环境因素驱动的潜在分布模式，对于种植地点的选择和药材质量的维持至关重要。在此，利用最大熵模型预测了中国江西省枳壳在当前和未来气候条件下的潜在分布。通过实地调查收集了总共105个枳壳地理分布数据，并从公共数据库中获取了32个环境变量。当选择16个环境变量时，最大熵模型显示出较高的预测准确性（AUC = 0.932）。枳壳的生境适宜性受气候的显著影响，超过了地形和土壤因素。最暖月最高温度、年温度范围、最湿月降水量、降水变异系数、海拔、坡向和土壤有机碳是塑造枳壳地理分布的关键因素。其中，最暖月最高温度（16.9%），其次是年温度范围（16.1%），对模型预测的贡献最大。在当前气候背景下，枳壳的总潜在适宜面积覆盖了6.30×10平方千米的园地。在未来气候变暖情景（共享社会经济路径245、585）下，预计潜在适宜面积将向南移动，并在2040 - 2080年扩大两倍，中度和低度适宜区域显著增加。海拔较高、湿润凉爽且起伏平缓的低山丘陵地区将更适合未来枳壳的引种和种植。考虑到未来气候变化，针对不同适宜种植区域提出了区域化策略。所有数据可在Mendeley Data（DOI：10.17632/s9wsnn2xcn.1）获取。代码可在https://github.com/mrmaxent/Maxent获取。
