Liu Quanwei, Zhuo Zhihang, Wang Zhiling, Peng Yaqin, Xu Danping
College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2025 Jun 16;16:1534608. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1534608. eCollection 2025.
is a traditional medicinal plant in China, containing rich and medically valuable extracts. In recent years, the widespread development and application of its extracts have threatened the wild population of . In order to protect the population of , this research employed the Maxent model to examine the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution of and to forecast its potential suitable distribution in China in light of climate change scenarios. The suitable habitat for is located between 25.13°-39.50°N and 102.46°-118.13°E, mainly distributed across Loess Plateau. Climate change has a significant impact on the geographic distribution of , with its high suitability zone expected to increase in the future and its centroid shifts towards the southeast direction. The 2050s projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios indicated a significant expansion of highly suitable habitats. The analysis of key environmental variables showed that the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (bio4), the lowest temperature in the coldest month (bio6), annual precipitation (bio12), seasonal variation of precipitation (bio15), human activity (hf), and the average ultraviolet radiation (UV-B3) in the highest month were the key factors affecting selection of suitable habitats. This study provided important reference for the protection of the wild population of and the selection of artificial planting areas in the future.
是中国的一种传统药用植物，含有丰富且具有医学价值的提取物。近年来，其提取物的广泛开发和应用对的野生种群构成了威胁。为了保护的种群，本研究采用Maxent模型来研究气候变化对地理分布的影响，并根据气候变化情景预测其在中国的潜在适宜分布。的适宜栖息地位于北纬25.13° - 39.50°和东经102.46° - 118.13°之间，主要分布在黄土高原。气候变化对的地理分布有显著影响，其高适生区预计未来会增加，且其重心向东南方向移动。共享社会经济路径（SSP）1 - 2.6和SSP2 - 4.5情景下的2050年代预测表明，高适生栖息地将显著扩张。关键环境变量分析表明，温度季节变化系数（bio4）、最冷月最低温度（bio6）、年降水量（bio12）、降水季节变化（bio15）、人类活动（hf）以及最高月平均紫外线辐射（UV - B3）是影响选择适宜栖息地的关键因素。本研究为保护的野生种群以及未来人工种植区的选择提供了重要参考。
