Prediction of potential invasion of two weeds of the genus Avena in Asia under climate change based on Maxent.

Avena sterilis L. (A. sterilis) and Avena ludoviciana Dur. (A. ludoviciana) are extremely invasive weeds with strong competitive ability and multiple transmission routes. Both species can invade a variety of dryland crops, including wheat, corn, and beans. Asia, as the world's major food-producing continent, will experience significant losses to agricultural production if it is invaded by these weeds on a large scale. This study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to map the distribution of suitable habitats of the two species in Asia under climate change conditions. The constructed model comprised four levels, with a total of 25 index-level indicator factors used to evaluate the invasion risk of the two species. The results showed that the distribution of suitable habitats for both Avena species was highly dependent on precipitation and temperature. Under climate warming conditions, although overall the total suitable area is predicted to decrease compared to the current period, there are still moderately or highly suitable areas. Asian countries need to provide early warning for areas with significant increases in moderate and highly suitable zones for these two species of weeds under the background of climate change. If there is already an invaded area or if the suitability of the original area is increased, this should be closely monitored, and control measures should be taken to prevent further spread and deterioration.