Boromisa Ana-Maria
Institute for Development and International Relations, Zagreb, Croatia.
Front Sociol. 2025 Jun 18;10:1564299. doi: 10.3389/fsoc.2025.1564299. eCollection 2025.
Climate change and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies have significant socioeconomic implications. Conversely, socioeconomic developments shape the capacity to design and enforce climate policies, creating a feedback loop. This paper localizes the impact of Climate change in Croatia and explores the feedback between socio-economic development and climate change. The starting hypothesis is that limitations in human capital critically hinder climate-resilient development in Croatia.
The study uses climate data and literature to contextualize Croatia's climate vulnerability. A sector-specific analysis is conducted to identify key sectors for climate-resilient development based on their potential for emissions reduction, climate vulnerability, and current and potential economic importance. The current economic importance is evaluated based on contribution to GDP and employment, and key opportunities and obstacle for future growth are identified.
Climate data and literature indicate that Croatia, a high-income EU member, is experiencing warming faster than the global average and ranks among the least climate-resilient high-income countries. A sector-specific analysis identifies the most critical sectors for Croatian climate-resilient development based on their emission reduction potential, climate vulnerability, and growth opportunities. Among these are sectors that contribute the most to GDP and employment-such as tourism, construction, and healthcare -which already suffer from significant labor shortages. The results indicate that a shrinking workforce is the key constraint for implementation of climate-resilient development.
Significant improvements in labor productivity, higher participation rates, integration of foreign workers in the labor market, and efforts to address skills shortages are necessary. This presents a challenge, given increasing damages from extreme climate events, ongoing depopulation, a limited supply of a highly educated workforce, and low participation in lifelong learning. For climate-resilient development, it is essential to design policies that adequately address aging and depopulation -both of which limit economic growth and reduce capacity for climate adaptation.
Findings of the Croatian case offer insights for Mediterranean and island countries reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like tourism (e.g., Greece, Thailand). The high-income yet low-resilience paradox is relevant for regions such as Southern Europe, Australia, and California. EU membership highlights institutional misalignments between supranational climate agendas (e.g., the European Green Deal) and subnational demographic realities. These dynamics are relevant to aging societies (Japan, Germany) and post-industrial economies (Poland, Canada) navigating green transitions, emphasizing the need to integrate demographic strategies into climate governance.
气候变化以及减缓与适应政策的实施具有重大的社会经济影响。反之，社会经济发展塑造了设计和执行气候政策的能力，从而形成了一个反馈循环。本文将气候变化在克罗地亚的影响进行了本地化研究，并探讨了社会经济发展与气候变化之间的反馈关系。起始假设是，人力资本的限制严重阻碍了克罗地亚的气候适应型发展。
该研究使用气候数据和文献来描述克罗地亚的气候脆弱性情况。基于各部门的减排潜力、气候脆弱性以及当前和潜在的经济重要性，进行了特定部门分析，以确定气候适应型发展的关键部门。根据对国内生产总值和就业的贡献评估当前的经济重要性，并确定未来增长的关键机遇和障碍。
气候数据和文献表明，作为欧盟高收入成员国的克罗地亚，其变暖速度快于全球平均水平，且在气候适应能力最差的高收入国家中名列前茅。特定部门分析根据减排潜力、气候脆弱性和增长机遇，确定了克罗地亚气候适应型发展最关键的部门。其中包括对国内生产总值和就业贡献最大的部门，如旅游业、建筑业和医疗保健业，这些部门已经面临严重的劳动力短缺。结果表明，劳动力减少是实施气候适应型发展的关键制约因素。
提高劳动生产率、提高参与率、让外国工人融入劳动力市场以及努力解决技能短缺问题十分必要。鉴于极端气候事件造成的破坏日益增加、人口持续减少、高学历劳动力供应有限以及终身学习参与度低，这带来了挑战。对于气候适应型发展而言，设计能够充分应对老龄化和人口减少问题的政策至关重要，因为这两者都会限制经济增长并降低气候适应能力。
克罗地亚案例的研究结果为依赖旅游业等对气候敏感部门的地中海国家和岛国（如希腊、泰国）提供了见解。高收入但适应能力低的悖论在南欧、澳大利亚和加利福尼亚等地区具有相关性。欧盟成员国身份凸显了超国家气候议程（如欧洲绿色协议）与次国家人口现实之间的制度失调。这些动态与正在进行绿色转型的老龄化社会（日本、德国）和后工业经济体（波兰、加拿大）相关，强调了将人口战略纳入气候治理的必要性。
