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流浪狗与公共卫生:印度旁遮普邦的数量估计

Stray Dogs and Public Health: Population Estimation in Punjab, India.

作者信息

Gill Gurlal S, Singh Balbir B, Dhand Navneet K, Aulakh Rabinder S, Ward Michael P, Brookes Victoria J

机构信息

Centre for One Health, Guru Angad Dev Veterinary and Animal Sciences University (GADVASU), Ludhiana 141001, India.

Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Faridkot, 151203, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana 141004, India.

出版信息

Vet Sci. 2022 Feb 10;9(2):75. doi: 10.3390/vetsci9020075.

Abstract

The overpopulation of stray dogs is a serious public health and animal welfare concern in India. Neglected zoonotic diseases such as rabies and echinococcosis are transmitted at the stray-dog human interface, particularly in low to middle-income countries. The current study was designed to estimate the stray dog populations in Punjab to enhance the implementation of animal birth and disease (for example, rabies vaccination) control programs. This is the first systematic estimation of the stray dog population using a recommended method (mark-re-sight) in Punjab, India. The study was conducted from August 2016 to November 2017 in selected villages or wards in Punjab. For the rural areas, 22 sub-districts in each district were randomly selected, then one village from each of the 22 selected sub-districts was selected (by convenience sampling). For urban areas, 3 towns (less than 100,000 human population) and 2 large cities (more than or equal to 100,000 human population) were randomly selected, followed by convenience selection of two wards from each of the 5 selected towns/cities. To estimate the dog population size, we used a modified mark-re-sight procedure and analysed counts using two methods; the Lincoln-Petersen formula with Chapman's correction, and an application of Good-Turing theory (SuperDuplicates method; estimated per km and per 1000 adult humans and were compared between localities (villages vs. towns), dog sex (male vs. female) and age group (young vs. adult) using linear mixed models with district as a random effect. The predicted mean (95% CI) count of the dogs per village or ward were extrapolated to estimate the number of stray dogs in Punjab based on (a) the number of villages and wards in the state; (b) the adult human population of the state and (c) the built-up area of the state. Median stray dog populations per village and per ward using the Lincoln-Petersen formula with Chapman's correction were estimated to be 33 and 65 dogs, respectively. Higher estimates of 61 per village and 112 per ward are reported using the SuperDuplicates method. The number of males was significantly higher than the number of females and the number of adult dogs was about three times the number of young dogs. Based on different methods, estimates of the mean stray dog population in the state of Punjab ranged from 519,000 to 1,569,000. The current study revealed that there are a substantial number of stray dogs and a high number reside in rural (versus urban) areas in Punjab. The estimated stray dog numbers pose a potential public health hazard in Punjab. This impact requires assessment. The estimated stray dog numbers will help develop a dog population and rabies control program in which information about the logistics required as well as costs of implementing such programmes in Punjab can be incorporated.

摘要

在印度,流浪狗数量过多是一个严重的公共卫生和动物福利问题。诸如狂犬病和棘球蚴病等被忽视的人畜共患病在流浪狗与人类的接触界面传播,尤其是在低收入和中等收入国家。当前的研究旨在估计旁遮普邦的流浪狗数量,以加强动物出生和疾病(如狂犬病疫苗接种)控制计划的实施。这是在印度旁遮普邦首次使用推荐方法(标记重捕法)对流浪狗数量进行的系统估计。该研究于2016年8月至2017年11月在旁遮普邦选定的村庄或选区进行。对于农村地区,每个区随机选择22个分区,然后从22个选定分区中各选一个村庄(通过便利抽样)。对于城市地区,随机选择3个城镇(人口少于10万)和2个大城市(人口多于或等于10万),随后从5个选定城镇/城市中各便利选择两个选区。为了估计狗的种群数量,我们使用了改良的标记重捕程序,并使用两种方法分析计数;带有查普曼校正的林肯 - 彼得森公式,以及古德 - 图灵理论的应用(超级重复法;每公里和每1000名成年人进行估计),并使用以区为随机效应的线性混合模型在不同地点(村庄与城镇)、狗的性别(雄性与雌性)和年龄组(幼年与成年)之间进行比较。每个村庄或选区狗的预测平均(95%置信区间)计数被外推,以根据(a)该邦的村庄和选区数量;(b)该邦的成年人口数量;以及(c)该邦的建成区面积来估计旁遮普邦的流浪狗数量。使用带有查普曼校正的林肯 - 彼得森公式估计每个村庄和每个选区的流浪狗数量中位数分别为33只和65只。使用超级重复法报告的每个村庄和每个选区的估计值更高,分别为61只和112只。雄性狗的数量显著高于雌性狗的数量,成年狗的数量约为幼年狗数量的三倍。基于不同方法,旁遮普邦流浪狗平均数量的估计值在519,000至1,569,000之间。当前研究表明,旁遮普邦有大量流浪狗,且大量流浪狗居住在农村(相对于城市)地区。估计的流浪狗数量对旁遮普邦构成潜在的公共卫生危害。这种影响需要评估。估计的流浪狗数量将有助于制定狗种群和狂犬病控制计划,其中可以纳入旁遮普邦实施此类计划所需的后勤信息以及成本。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ba5/8878280/d9d5a6a62522/vetsci-09-00075-g001.jpg

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