Gallium: Assessing the Long-Term Future Extraction, Supply, Recycling, and Price of Using WORLD7, in Relation to Future Technology Visions in the European Union.

The gallium resources were assessed and used as input to long-term simulations using the WORLD7 model. The content of gallium in different mother ores has been estimated to be about 14.7 million tons of gallium. Much of this is not accessible because of low extraction yields, about 610,000 tons gallium appear to be extractable (4%) with present practices. The gallium content in all source metal refining residuals is about 51,000 ton/yr, but only a production of 1,374 ton/yr appears as the maximum with present technology and conditions. The actual gallium production was about 450 ton/yr in 2023. The gallium price is very sensitive to increases in demand, and production is not very likely to be able to rapidly increase. The simulations show that soft gallium scarcity sets in after 2028 and physical scarcity will occur about 2060. Better gallium extraction and recycling yields may push the scarcity date forward to 2100. 60% of the gallium demand for photovoltaic technology can be satisfied in the long term. To improve the situation and prevent scarcity, extractive access, gallium extraction yields, and recycling yields must be significantly improved to better than 50%. At present, the overall yields are 7-15%. Increasing extraction yields and recycling yields can reduce the shortage. The long-term sustainable extraction is under Business-as-Usual about 300 tons gallium per year, about 67% of the present production. This poses a major challenge to future plans for an energy transition, where under Business-as-usual (BAU), such a transition will remain hypothetical. The four EEA imaginaries, Ecotopia, The Great Decoupling, Unity in Adversity, and Technocracy for the Common Good, offer different policy pathways for managing future gallium scarcity through varying degrees of technological advancement, resource conservation, and avoidance strategy.