Yang Fuyu, Chen Runze, Xiong Jun, Liu Baixi
Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, China.
Engineering Research Center of Mobile Health Management System, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou, 311121, China.
Child Psychiatry Hum Dev. 2025 Jul 11. doi: 10.1007/s10578-025-01880-w.
This study aims to systematically analyze the disease burden of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) in children aged 0-14 years, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. By examining their temporal trends, regional distributions, and demographic differences, the study seeks to elucidate the epidemiological similarities and differences between the two disorders, thereby providing a scientific foundation for the development of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment strategies. This study, based on GBD 2021 data, analyzed the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of ASD and ADHD globally from 1990 to 2021. The research employed age-standardized rates (ASR) to eliminate the influence of population age structure and explored the contributions of epidemiological changes, including population size, aging, as well as disease incidence, prevalence, mortality, and risk factors, to DALY through decomposition analysis. Additionally, the study performed an analysis of health inequalities, conducted a frontier analysis, and predicted future trends utilizing the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model. In 2021, the prevalence of ASD among the global population aged 0-14 years was 857.14 cases per 100,000 individuals (95% UI: 723.16-1009.04), while the prevalence of ADHD was 1,661.61 cases per 100,000 individuals (95% UI: 1,128.43-2,414.83). Within this age group, the DALY for ASD were 3,318,058 (95% UI: 2,248,324-4,668,010), compared to 410,705 (95% UI: 209,548-714,682) for ADHD. The DALY burden for ASD was higher than that for ADHD. These two disorders exhibit differences in gender and age distribution, with higher incidence rates and DALY values observed in males. Projections indicate that from 2021 to 2050, the DALY for both ASD and ADHD in the 0-14 age group are expected to show an upward trend.
本研究旨在利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021数据库的数据，系统分析0至14岁儿童自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）和注意力缺陷多动障碍（ADHD）的疾病负担。通过研究它们的时间趋势、区域分布和人口统计学差异，该研究旨在阐明这两种疾病在流行病学上的异同，从而为制定预防、诊断和治疗策略提供科学依据。本研究基于GBD 2021数据，分析了1990年至2021年全球范围内ASD和ADHD的发病率、患病率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）。该研究采用年龄标准化率（ASR）来消除人口年龄结构的影响，并通过分解分析探讨了包括人口规模、老龄化以及疾病发病率、患病率、死亡率和危险因素在内的流行病学变化对DALY的贡献。此外，该研究进行了健康不平等分析、前沿分析，并利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测了未来趋势。2021年，全球0至14岁人群中ASD的患病率为每10万人857.14例（95%不确定区间：723.16 - 1009.04），而ADHD的患病率为每10万人1661.61例（95%不确定区间：1128.43 - 2414.83）。在该年龄组中，ASD的DALY为3318058（95%不确定区间：2248324 - 4668010），而ADHD的DALY为410705（95%不确定区间：209548 - 714682）。ASD的DALY负担高于ADHD。这两种疾病在性别和年龄分布上存在差异，男性的发病率和DALY值更高。预测表明，从2021年到2050年，0至14岁年龄组中ASD和ADHD的DALY预计都将呈上升趋势。
