Sendín-Martín Mercedes, Bueno-Molina Rocío C, Hernández-Rodríguez Juan-Carlos, Cayuela Lucía, Cayuela Aurelio, Pereyra-Rodríguez José-Juan
Department of Dermatology, Virgen del Rocío University Hospital, Seville, Spain.
Department of Medicine, University of Seville, Seville, Spain.
Clin Transl Oncol. 2025 Jul 11. doi: 10.1007/s12094-025-03985-z.
Nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC), predominantly basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), represents the most common malignancy among fair-skinned populations. While BCC is rarely fatal, SCC contributes significantly to NMSC-related mortality. This study aimed to investigate long-term trends in NMSC incidence and SCC mortality across 28 European countries from 1992 to 2021, focusing on regional, sex-specific, and age-related variations.
METHODS/PATIENTS: A longitudinal ecological analysis was conducted using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) for NMSC and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for SCC were calculated based on the 2013 European Standard Population. Temporal trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression, and age-period-cohort (APC) models were employed to disentangle independent effects on SCC mortality.
Europe registered over 27 million NMSC cases between 1992 and 2021. Overall ASIRs slightly declined, although increasing incidence was observed in individuals under 45 in Central and Northern Europe. SCC accounted for more than 570,000 deaths, with overall ASMRs decreasing-particularly among women and younger men. However, mortality rose in men aged over 75, notably in Northern and Western Europe. APC analysis indicated elevated SCC mortality in cohorts born before 1940, with a notable reversal in Northern European males born after 1960, who exhibited increasing mortality. Period effects further confirmed a recent rise in SCC mortality among these populations.
Although NMSC incidence appears to be stabilizing or declining in much of Europe, increasing trends in younger individuals and rising SCC mortality in older men-especially in Northern Europe-highlight the need for age- and region-specific prevention and screening strategies. Improved cancer registry harmonization remains essential for guiding effective public health interventions.
非黑色素瘤皮肤癌（NMSC），主要是基底细胞癌（BCC）和鳞状细胞癌（SCC），是白种人群中最常见的恶性肿瘤。虽然基底细胞癌很少致命，但鳞状细胞癌是导致NMSC相关死亡的重要原因。本研究旨在调查1992年至2021年期间28个欧洲国家NMSC发病率和SCC死亡率的长期趋势，重点关注地区、性别和年龄相关的差异。
方法/患者：使用全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库进行纵向生态分析。根据2013年欧洲标准人口计算NMSC的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和SCC的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）。使用连接点回归评估时间趋势，并采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型来区分对SCC死亡率的独立影响。
1992年至2021年期间，欧洲登记了超过2700万例NMSC病例。总体ASIR略有下降，尽管在中欧和北欧45岁以下人群中发病率有所上升。SCC导致超过57万人死亡，总体ASMR下降，尤其是在女性和年轻男性中。然而，75岁以上男性的死亡率上升，在北欧和西欧尤为明显。APC分析表明，1940年以前出生的队列中SCC死亡率升高，1960年以后出生的北欧男性死亡率出现显著逆转，呈上升趋势。时期效应进一步证实了这些人群中SCC死亡率最近有所上升。
尽管在欧洲大部分地区NMSC发病率似乎趋于稳定或下降，但年轻个体发病率上升以及老年男性尤其是北欧地区SCC死亡率上升，凸显了针对年龄和地区制定预防和筛查策略的必要性。改善癌症登记的协调性对于指导有效的公共卫生干预措施仍然至关重要。
