Disease burden and trends of bladder cancer in the world and BRICS from 1990 to 2021 and its projection until 2036: analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

PURPOSE

The rising burden of bladder cancer (BCa) calls for in-depth research. This study, based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, assesses and forecasts BCa's disease burden globally and in BRICS countries to support targeted prevention and control.

METHODS

Data from GBD 2021 were utilized. Incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), risk factors, and the relationship with sociodemographic indexes (SDIs) were analyzed. R 4.4.1 and join-point software calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and average annual percentage change of age-standardized rates. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected the burden from 2022 to 2036.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global BCa burden increased in incidence, mortality, prevalence, and DALYs compared to 1990, but the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) showed a decreasing trend, and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was stable. Among BRICS, South Africa had the highest burden (notably increasing in 1994-1997), and Egypt had the lowest (decreasing significantly in 2001-2005). BCa burden correlated positively with SDI. Smoking was the main risk factor, followed by high fasting plasma glucose. Projections show a global decline from 2022 to 2036, but an increase in some BRICS countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden of BCa has improved in recent years, but remains a major public health challenge worldwide and in BRICS countries. Smoking and HFPG have been identified as the most important risk factors for BCa. In the future, the disease burden of BCa in most BRICS countries is likely to continue to increase. Sufficient attention and multi-party cooperation are needed to control the widespread public health issue.