Kelly Gabrielle Elizabeth, Petti Stefano, Noah Norman
School of Mathematics and Statistics, https://ror.org/05m7pjf47University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, https://ror.org/02be6w209Sapienza University, Rome, Italy.
Epidemiol Infect. 2025 Jul 14;153:e86. doi: 10.1017/S0950268825100265.
This study analyzed standardized excess mortality due to specific causes during the Covid-19 pandemic across 33 European countries, using Eurostat data (2016-2021) and Our World in Data databases. Causes included circulatory and respiratory diseases, neoplasms, transport accidents, and "other" causes (e.g., diabetes, dementia, ill-defined conditions). Additional variables such as vaccination rates, economic and health indicators, demographics, and government stringency measures were also examined. Key findings include: (1) Most European countries (excluding Central and Eastern Europe), recorded lower than expected excess mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and transport accidents. Ireland had the lowest excess respiratory mortality in both 2020 and 2021; (2) Croatia, Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey showed significant positive excess mortality from "other" causes, potentially linked to public health restrictions, with Turkey as an exception; (3) Regression analysis found that higher human development index and vaccination rates were associated with lower excess mortality. Policy Implications are: (1) Statistically significant positive or negative cause-specific excess mortality may indicate future health trends; (2) The pandemic and government stringency measures negatively affected mortality from "other" causes; (3) Strengthening health system resilience, investing in digital medicine, directing aid to countries with weaker systems, and supporting disadvantaged groups are key recommendations.
本研究利用欧盟统计局数据（2016 - 2021年）和“我们的数据世界”数据库，分析了新冠疫情期间33个欧洲国家因特定原因导致的标准化超额死亡率。这些原因包括循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病、肿瘤、交通事故以及“其他”原因（如糖尿病、痴呆症、不明病症）。还研究了其他变量，如疫苗接种率、经济和健康指标、人口统计学以及政府的严格措施。主要研究结果包括：（1）大多数欧洲国家（不包括中东欧国家）循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病、肿瘤和交通事故的超额死亡率低于预期。爱尔兰在2020年和2021年的超额呼吸死亡率最低；（2）克罗地亚、塞浦路斯、马耳他和土耳其“其他”原因导致的超额死亡率呈显著正增长，这可能与公共卫生限制有关，但土耳其除外；（3）回归分析发现，较高的人类发展指数和疫苗接种率与较低的超额死亡率相关。政策建议如下：（1）具有统计学意义的特定原因超额死亡率的正增长或负增长可能预示未来的健康趋势；（2）疫情和政府的严格措施对“其他”原因导致的死亡率产生了负面影响；（3）加强卫生系统的复原力、投资数字医学、向卫生系统较弱的国家提供援助以及支持弱势群体是关键建议。
