Summers Jennifer A, Kerr John, Grout Leah, Kvalsvig Amanda, Baker Michael G, Wilson Nick
School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
SSM Popul Health. 2025 Jun 12;31:101827. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2025.101827. eCollection 2025 Sep.
We examined how the Covid-19 pandemic response and outcomes varied amongst the six island countries that were all in the high-income OECD grouping.
The OECD island countries were ranked according to key health and macroeconomic outcomes, and stringency of control measures compared with proactivity of pandemic response.
The top ranked country for health outcomes was NZ with the lowest cumulative excess mortality rate to the end of 2023 (20 per 100,000 population), followed by Australia and Iceland (both 137), Japan (226), Ireland (229) and the UK (390). For combined macroeconomic outcomes (changes in GDP per capita growth [2019 to 2020; 2020 to 2021] and changes in unemployment levels [2020-2023]), the countries with the best rankings were Australia, NZ and Ireland. Median stringency was lowest for NZ, but highest for Australia. NZ had the highest average rank for proactivity of key control measures.
This study provides additional evidence, for island nations, that an exclusion and elimination strategy can provide superior health/macroeconomic pandemic outcomes, compared with suppression/mitigation strategies.
我们研究了新冠疫情应对措施及结果在经济合作与发展组织(OECD)高收入分组中的六个岛国之间是如何变化的。
根据关键健康和宏观经济结果对经合组织岛国进行排名,并将控制措施的严格程度与疫情应对的积极性进行比较。
在健康结果方面排名最高的国家是新西兰,截至2023年底累计超额死亡率最低(每10万人中有20人),其次是澳大利亚和冰岛(均为137)、日本(226)、爱尔兰(229)和英国(390)。在综合宏观经济结果(人均GDP增长变化[2019年至2020年;2020年至2021年]和失业率变化[2020 - 2023年])方面,排名最靠前的国家是澳大利亚、新西兰和爱尔兰。新西兰的控制措施严格程度中位数最低,但澳大利亚最高。新西兰在关键控制措施的积极性方面平均排名最高。
这项研究为岛国提供了更多证据,表明与抑制/缓解策略相比,排除和消除策略可以带来更好的健康/宏观经济疫情结果。