Rađa Ante, Marasović Jakov, Erceg Marko, Krustrup Peter, Randers Morten B, Ardigò Luca Paolo
Faculty of Kinesiology, University of Split, Split, Croatia.
Department of Sports Science and Clinical Biomechanics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
PLoS One. 2025 Jul 14;20(7):e0327878. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0327878. eCollection 2025.
The relative age effect (RAE) refers to the unequal quartal-to-quartal birth distribution in competitive sports, leading to more athletes being born earlier in the selection period. This effect results in relatively older players, who are often physically more developed, being overrepresented in youth academies and professional levels, as they receive more attention and opportunities due to their advanced biological maturation and superior physical performance compared to their younger peers. This study involved 177 U-15 football players from Dalmatia, Croatia, averaging 14.1 ± 0.9 yrs of age and 6.6 ± 1.9 yrs of training experience. Anthropometric characteristics, motor-functional abilities, and specific abilities with the ball were measured over two days, using standardised equipment and procedures, and the data were analysed with descriptive statistics, one-way analysis of variance, and post hoc least significant difference tests to identify differences across quartiles. The study found statistically significant differences in the distribution and characteristics of players born in different quartiles of the year, with 63.3% born in the first two quartiles. RAE influenced young football players' birth distribution and physical characteristics, with a higher proportion born in the first quartile of the year (Q1) and showing superior morphological development and physical performance. Q1 players were significantly taller and heavier and performed better in explosiveness tests (medium effect sizes) compared to other quartiles. Furthermore, small to medium effect differences occurred in circumferences, 20-m, 30-m sprints and ball-kicking velocities in favour of Q1. As these abilities and characteristics are key to success in football, players born in the first quartile have an advantage in the selection process. This highlights the need for coaches to focus on potential talent rather than current performance despite the competitive pressure to win.
相对年龄效应（RAE）指的是竞技体育中按季度划分的出生分布不均，导致在选拔期较早出生的运动员数量更多。这种效应使得相对年龄较大的运动员（他们通常在身体发育上更为成熟）在青年队和职业层面的占比过高，因为相较于年龄较小的同龄人，他们由于生物成熟度更高、身体表现更优而受到更多关注和获得更多机会。本研究涉及来自克罗地亚达尔马提亚地区的177名15岁以下足球运动员，平均年龄为14.1±0.9岁，训练经验为6.6±1.9年。在两天时间里，使用标准化设备和程序测量了人体测量学特征、运动功能能力以及控球的特定能力，并运用描述性统计、单因素方差分析和事后最小显著差异检验对数据进行分析，以确定各四分位数之间的差异。研究发现，一年中不同四分位数出生的球员在分布和特征上存在统计学显著差异，63.3%的球员出生在头两个四分位数。相对年龄效应影响了年轻足球运动员的出生分布和身体特征，出生在一年中第一个四分位数（Q1）的球员比例更高，且形态发育和身体表现更优。与其他四分位数相比，Q1的球员明显更高、更重，在爆发力测试中表现更好（中等效应量）。此外，在周长、20米和30米短跑以及踢球速度方面出现了小到中等程度的效应差异，Q1占优。由于这些能力和特征是足球成功的关键，出生在第一个四分位数的球员在选拔过程中具有优势。这凸显了尽管存在赢球的竞争压力，但教练仍需关注潜在天赋而非当前表现的必要性。
