Leyhr Daniel, Bergmann Fynn, Raabe Johannes, Höner Oliver
Institute of Sports Science, Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.
Methods Center, Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.
Eur J Sport Sci. 2025 Jul;25(7):e12335. doi: 10.1002/ejsc.12335.
Female players have largely been neglected in soccer-specific talent research. Particularly, prospective studies examining the predictive validity of multidimensional performance factors for different selection levels-especially players' success in adulthood-remain scarce. This prospective cohort study investigated the predictive validity of multidimensional performance factors for the future success of U15 female players (N = 264) participating in the German Football Association's Talent Development program. All players' kicking, tactical, and psychosocial skills, as well as endurance capacity, were evaluated subjectively. They also completed five objective motor tests (sprint, agility [CODS], dribbling, ball control, and juggling). Players' future success was based on their selection for the U17 Bundesliga (43.6% selection rate), U17 Youth National Team (6.4%), and Women's Bundesliga (i.e., professional level in adulthood; 6.1%). Univariate analyses examined performance differences in each predictor between selected and nonselected players. Multivariate analyses determined whether objective predictors, subjective predictors, or a combination thereof offered the best prediction. Univariate results indicate the predictive validity of both assessments, revealing a trend toward larger effect sizes for higher selection levels and differences in predictor relevance. Multivariate models showed that adding subjective to objective predictors led to an increase in explained variance for participation in the U17 Bundesliga (Nagelkerke's R = 16%) and Women's Bundesliga (31%), but not U17 Youth National Team (18%). Sprint performance reached significance across models, whereas the sole significant subjective predictor was tactical skills regarding participation in the Women's Bundesliga. Overall, these findings support the practical value of both assessments, which can likely be increased further via more distinct coach ratings.
在足球专项人才研究中，女性球员在很大程度上被忽视了。特别是，针对不同选拔水平的多维表现因素预测效度的前瞻性研究，尤其是关于球员成年后成功情况的研究，仍然很少。这项前瞻性队列研究调查了参与德国足球协会人才发展计划的15岁以下女性球员（N = 264）的多维表现因素对其未来成功的预测效度。对所有球员的踢球、战术和心理社会技能以及耐力进行了主观评估。他们还完成了五项客观运动测试（短跑、敏捷性[CODS]、运球、控球和颠球）。球员未来的成功基于她们入选U17德甲联赛（选拔率43.6%）、U17青年国家队（6.4%）和女子德甲联赛（即成年后的职业水平；6.1%）的情况。单因素分析检验了入选和未入选球员在每个预测指标上的表现差异。多因素分析确定了客观预测指标、主观预测指标或两者的组合是否提供了最佳预测。单因素结果表明两种评估方法都具有预测效度，显示出选拔水平越高效应量越大的趋势以及预测指标相关性的差异。多因素模型表明，在客观预测指标中加入主观预测指标会导致参与U17德甲联赛（Nagelkerke's R = 16%）和女子德甲联赛（31%）的解释方差增加，但对U17青年国家队（18%）没有影响。短跑成绩在所有模型中都具有显著性，而唯一具有显著性的主观预测指标是与参与女子德甲联赛相关的战术技能。总体而言，这些发现支持了两种评估方法的实用价值，通过更明确的教练评分可能会进一步提高其价值。
