Semprini Jason
Department of Public Health, Des Moines University, West Des Moines, IA, USA.
Public Health Rep. 2025 Jul 15:333549251341244. doi: 10.1177/00333549251341244.
Although smoking is the leading cause of lung cancer, smoking rates have been declining for decades, in part due to increasing cigarette taxes. This study analyzed how states increased and responded to cigarette taxes to determine whether increasing contemporary cigarette taxes could reduce lung cancer incidence in the United States.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data were used to measure state-level cigarette tax and consumption (pack sales per capita). For each state, the elasticity of demand (change in cigarette consumption percentage/change in state tax) was estimated. Then, each state was classified into 4 mutually exclusive groups based on median change in the state cigarette tax from 1970 to 2019 (high, low) and median elasticity (high, low). Finally, state-level, sex-stratified data from the North American Association of Centralized Cancer Registries (2000-2019) were analyzed to test whether the incidence of small cell and squamous cell lung cancer varied by group.
From 1970 to 2019, cigarette tax increases ranged from $0.08 (Missouri) to $4.90 (District of Columbia). The median tax increase was $1.54. The elasticity of demand for cigarettes from state taxes ranged from -0.10 (West Virginia) to -0.64 (Georgia). The median elasticity was -0.40. Among males, the low-elasticity, low-tax change group had the highest incidence of small cell and squamous cell lung cancer. No significant differences in incidence were found across groups among females.
Increasing cigarette taxes could reduce the future incidence of lung cancer among males. Other social or environmental policies, however, may be necessary to reduce lung cancer incidence among females.
尽管吸烟是肺癌的主要病因，但数十年来吸烟率一直在下降，部分原因是香烟税的增加。本研究分析了各州如何提高香烟税以及对香烟税的反应，以确定提高当代香烟税是否能降低美国肺癌的发病率。
使用疾病控制与预防中心的数据来衡量州一级的香烟税和消费量（人均包装销售量）。对每个州，估计需求弹性（香烟消费百分比变化/州税变化）。然后，根据1970年至2019年该州香烟税的中位数变化（高、低）和中位数弹性（高、低），将每个州分为4个相互排斥的组。最后，分析了北美中央癌症登记协会（2000 - 2019年）的州一级、按性别分层的数据，以检验小细胞肺癌和鳞状细胞肺癌的发病率是否因组而异。
从1970年到2019年，香烟税的增幅从0.08美元（密苏里州）到4.90美元（哥伦比亚特区）不等。税收增幅的中位数为1.54美元。州税对香烟的需求弹性从 - 0.10（西弗吉尼亚州）到 - 0.64（佐治亚州）不等。中位数弹性为 - 0.40。在男性中，低弹性、低税收变化组的小细胞肺癌和鳞状细胞肺癌发病率最高。女性各群体之间在发病率上未发现显著差异。
提高香烟税可以降低男性未来肺癌的发病率。然而，可能需要其他社会或环境政策来降低女性肺癌的发病率。
