Xu Hongli, Qin Xiaoyan, Zhao Guoli, Feng Zeguo, You Shaohua
Medical Big Data Research Center, Medical Innovation Research Department of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, People's Republic of China.
Department of Clinical Laboratory, Shijingshan teaching hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing shijingshan Hospital, Beijing, 100049, People's Republic of China.
J Pain Res. 2025 Jul 10;18:3505-3517. doi: 10.2147/JPR.S512335. eCollection 2025.
Tension-type headache (TTH) is a prevalent primary headache disorder significantly impacting quality of life and healthcare resource utilization, with females typically bearing a higher disease burden. However, comprehensive analyses and predictive studies on the global TTH burden stratified by gender are currently lacking.
This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to analyze the global burden of tension - type headache by sex from 1990 to 2021 and conducted a 15 - year projection (up to 2036).
We conducted a systematic review of GBD 2021 data, employing Joinpoint regression analysis and decomposition analysis to assess TTH incidence, prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs. Additionally, we used the ARIMA model for a 15-year predictive analysis of TTH burden trends.
From 1990 to 2021, global female TTH cases rose from 669.54 million (95% UI: 586.2-751.8 million) to 1.04 billion (95% UI: 923.0-1.1 billion), with incidence increasing from 242.9 million (95% UI: 218.8-267.0 million) to 369.86 million (95% UI: 332.5-407.2 million). Male cases grew from 616.82 million (95% UI: 537.2-696.4 million) to 970 million (95% UI: 851.0-1.0 billion). Decomposition analysis indicated population growth was the primary driver of the increase in female TTH prevalence. Projections suggest that by 2036, the incidence will reach 9,174.84 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 8,854.8-9,494.9), prevalence will be 25,135.1 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 23,977.2-26,283.0), YLD rate will be 62.76 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 58.8-66.7), and DALY rate will be 60.97 per 100,000 females (95% UI: 56.7-65.2).
This study highlights the significance of gender in TTH burden, particularly the heightened risk for females. Through temporal trend analysis and predictive modeling, we provide insights into future TTH disease trajectories, aiding global public health policy formulation and healthcare resource allocation.
紧张型头痛（TTH）是一种常见的原发性头痛疾病，对生活质量和医疗资源利用有显著影响，女性通常承担更高的疾病负担。然而，目前缺乏按性别分层的全球紧张型头痛负担的综合分析和预测研究。
本研究利用全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据，分析1990年至2021年全球紧张型头痛按性别划分的负担，并进行了15年预测（至2036年）。
我们对GBD 2021数据进行了系统评价，采用Joinpoint回归分析和分解分析来评估紧张型头痛的发病率、患病率、伤残调整生命年（YLDs）和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。此外，我们使用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型对紧张型头痛负担趋势进行了15年的预测分析。
1990年至2021年，全球女性紧张型头痛病例从6.6954亿例（95%不确定区间：5.862亿 - 7.518亿例）增至10.4亿例（95%不确定区间：9.23亿 - 11亿例），发病率从2.429亿例（95%不确定区间：2.188亿 - 2.67亿例）增至3.6986亿例（95%不确定区间：3.325亿 - 4.072亿例）。男性病例从6.1682亿例（95%不确定区间：5.372亿 - 6.964亿例）增至9.7亿例（95%不确定区间：8.51亿 - 10亿例）。分解分析表明，人口增长是女性紧张型头痛患病率增加的主要驱动因素。预测显示，到2036年，每10万名女性中的发病率将达到9174.84例（95%不确定区间：8854.8 - 9494.9例），患病率将为每10万名女性25135.1例（95%不确定区间：23977.2 - 26283.0例），YLD率将为每10万名女性62.76例（95%不确定区间：58.8 - 66.7例），DALY率将为每10万名女性60.97例（95%不确定区间：56.7 - 65.2例）。
本研究强调了性别在紧张型头痛负担中的重要性，尤其是女性风险更高。通过时间趋势分析和预测建模，我们提供了对未来紧张型头痛疾病轨迹的见解，有助于全球公共卫生政策制定和医疗资源分配。
