Multi-DECT image-based radiomics with interpretable machine learning for preoperative prediction of tumor budding grade and prognosis in colorectal cancer: a dual-center study.

PURPOSE

This study evaluates the predictive ability of multiparametric dual-energy computed tomography (multi-DECT) radiomics for tumor budding (TB) grade and prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC).

METHODS

This study comprised 510 CRC patients at two institutions. The radiomics features of multi-DECT images (including polyenergetic, virtual monoenergetic, iodine concentration [IC], and effective atomic number images) were screened to build radiomics models utilizing nine machine learning (ML) algorithms. An ML-based fusion model comprising clinical-radiological variables and radiomics features was developed. The assessment of model performance was conducted through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), while the model's interpretability was assessed by shapley additive explanation (SHAP). The prognostic significance of the fusion model was determined via survival analysis.

RESULTS

The CT-reported lymph node status and normalized IC were used to develop a clinical-radiological model. Among the nine examined ML algorithms, the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithm performed best. The XGB-based fusion model containing multi-DECT radiomics features outperformed the clinical-radiological model in predicting TB grade, demonstrating superior AUCs of 0.969 in the training cohort, 0.934 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.897 in the external validation cohort. The SHAP analysis identified variables influencing model predictions. Patients with a model-predicted high TB grade had worse recurrence-free survival (RFS) in both the training (P < 0.001) and internal validation (P = 0.016) cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The XGB-based fusion model using multi-DECT radiomics could serve as a non-invasive tool to predict TB grade and RFS in patients with CRC preoperatively.