Zhou Bao, Zhao Jun-San, Chen Guo-Ping, Zhou Xian-Cun, Yin Ying, Yu Zu-Guo
Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China.
Yunnan Yunjindi Geo-Information Co. Ltd., Kunming 650102, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Jul 8;46(7):4615-4627. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202406123.
Global climate change and economic growth have altered land use structures， impacting ecosystem services and spatial distributions. The Southeast Yunnan karst region， with its fragile ecological environment and diverse land use types， has become a focal area of research. Utilizing multi-scenario simulations， this study evaluates the impacts of future land use changes on ecosystem services and optimizes the ecological network， aiming to provide scientific guidance for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Taking the Southeast Yunnan karst regions as the study area， land use data from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation （PLUS） model was employed to simulate land use patterns under three future scenarios for 2035： SSP126 （sustainable development）， SSP245 （natural growth）， and SSP585 （urban expansion）. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs （InVEST） model was used to assess typical regional ecosystem services， and the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological networks under different scenarios were analyzed. The results indicated that： ① The primary land use types in the Southeast Yunnan karst region were forests， croplands， and grasslands. From 2000 to 2020， the land use transfer area was 6 002.55 km， with significant transfers among forests， grasslands， and croplands. By 2035， land use changes were projected to exhibit significant differences in intensity and pattern under the different scenarios. ② Compared with 2020， water yield and soil retention were projected to increase by 20 135 under all three scenarios， whereas habitat quality and carbon storage were expected to decline. The SSP126 scenario showed the highest gains in water yield and soil retention， with the least losses in habitat quality and carbon storage compared to those in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. ③ Ecological source areas were mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern regions of Southeast Yunnan， with ecological networks predominantly oriented east-west. By 2035， the area of ecological source regions is expected to increase across all scenarios， enhancing the complexity and connectivity of the ecological network. ④ Future strategies should be based on the "one screen， three belts， and multiple nodes" optimization approach， implementing targeted ecological engineering projects to strengthen east-west corridors and develop north-south corridors. These findings provide scientific recommendations for ecological protection optimization and territorial spatial governance in the karst area of Southeast Yunnan.
全球气候变化和经济增长改变了土地利用结构，影响了生态系统服务和空间分布。滇东南喀斯特地区生态环境脆弱，土地利用类型多样，已成为研究的重点区域。本研究利用多情景模拟，评估未来土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响，并优化生态网络，旨在为区域生态保护和可持续发展提供科学指导。以滇东南喀斯特地区为研究区域，分析了2000年至2020年的土地利用数据。采用斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型，模拟了2035年三种未来情景下的土地利用格局：SSP126（可持续发展）、SSP245（自然增长）和SSP585（城市扩张）。利用生态系统服务综合价值评估（InVEST）模型评估典型区域生态系统服务，并分析不同情景下生态网络的时空动态。结果表明：①滇东南喀斯特地区主要土地利用类型为森林、耕地和草地。2000年至2020年，土地利用转移面积为6002.55平方千米，森林、草地和耕地之间存在显著转移。到2035年，不同情景下土地利用变化在强度和格局上预计将呈现显著差异。②与2020年相比，三种情景下产水量和土壤保持量预计均增加20135，而生境质量和碳储量预计将下降。与SSP245和SSP585情景相比，SSP126情景下产水量和土壤保持量增加最多，生境质量和碳储量损失最少。③生态源区主要集中在滇东南东部和南部地区，生态网络主要呈东西走向。到2035年，所有情景下生态源区面积预计均会增加，生态网络的复杂性和连通性将增强。④未来策略应基于“一屏、三带、多节点”优化方法，实施针对性的生态工程项目，加强东西走廊建设，发展南北走廊。这些研究结果为滇东南喀斯特地区生态保护优化和国土空间治理提供了科学建议。
