[Construction of Ecological Security Network and Multi-scenario Simulation in Guizhou Province Based on Landscape Ecological Security Assessment].

Building a reasonable ecological security network is a key for the coordinated solution in the contradiction between ecological protection and economic development. Taking Guizhou Province with typical karst development and a weak ecological background as an example， the cultivated land protection scenario， ecological protection scenario， and natural development scenario in 2030 were simulated based on the PLUS model. According to the landscape ecological risk index， landscape ecological security zones were divided into different scenarios， ecological source areas were identified by the ecological security zoning results and the InVEST-MSPA model， and ecological corridors and ecological pinch points were extracted by the circuit theory， to form an ecological security network for Guizhou Province in 2020 and 2030. The results showed that： ① The mean values of landscape ecological risks in 2020 and 2030 were relatively small， but the spatial distribution of ecological security zones was quite different， and ecological risks were generally higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. ② The spatial distribution of ecological source areas was greater in the southeast and less in the northwest， which was consistent with the ecological risk pattern. The ecological sources were mainly patches with high habitat quality and strong landscape connectivity. ③ The number of ecological corridors extracted in 2020 （current situation） and in the 2030 cultivated land protection scenario， ecological protection scenario， and natural development scenario were 126， 56， 113， and 126， respectively； the number of ecological pinch points identified were 107， 67， 104， and 168， respectively； and the numbers of obstacle points identified were 54， 24， 69， and 69， respectively. ④ Guizhou Province is one of the three leading demonstration provinces of ecological civilization construction in China， and the protection of the fragile ecological environment is highly restrictive to economic development. The landscape ecological risk under the natural development scenario was low， and the layout of ecological safety network was more realistic； thus， this scenario met the two-way needs of ecological protection and economic development in Guizhou Province. The research results can provide a scientific reference for the division of the ecological safety zone and ecological security control in Guizhou Province in the future.