Tong Xiao-Ting, Zhang Min-Li, Liu Yun, Xiang Rong, Li Hai-Lin, Wang Chang-Hua, Zhu Ting, Deng Zhi-Feng
Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, Hubei, China.
Yaxin School of Nursing, Wuhan Institute of Design and Sciences, Wuhan, 430060, Hubei, China.
Eur Arch Otorhinolaryngol. 2025 Jul 18. doi: 10.1007/s00405-025-09552-0.
This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to comprehensively analyze the global burden of laryngeal cancer (LC) attributable to high alcohol use from 1990 to 2021, and projections to 2050.
Data on death, disability adjusted of life years (DALYs), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate of LC attributable to high alcohol use were retrieved from the GBD 2021. Trend analysis used the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Death and DALYs were stratified according to social demographics index (SDI), age, gender, region, and countries. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models provided future projections.
By 2021, global deaths of LC attributable to high alcohol use had slightly increased compared to 1990.The EAPCs for ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate were - 1.48 and - 1.70, respectively. Males were high-risk populations and low-middle SDI regions was high-risk areas. The disease burden of LC attributable to high alcohol use varied considerably across the GBD regions and the countries. ARIMA model predicted results showed that the global deaths and DALYs cases would still increase from 2022 to 2050.
Between 1990 and 2021, while the overall burden of high alcohol use-related LC was gradually decreasing, marked regional and gender disparities persist. The annual number of LC deaths attributed to high alcohol use continues to rise, particularly in males and low-middle SDI regions. Highlights the need for more effective public health policies targeting high-risk regions and populations to reduce alcohol-related LC burden.
本研究利用全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据库的数据,全面分析1990年至2021年因大量饮酒导致的喉癌(LC)全球负担,并预测至2050年的情况。
从GBD 2021中检索因大量饮酒导致的LC的死亡、伤残调整生命年(DALYs)、年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR)和年龄标准化DALYs率的数据。趋势分析采用估计年百分比变化(EAPC)。死亡和DALYs根据社会人口统计学指数(SDI)、年龄、性别、地区和国家进行分层。自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型提供未来预测。
到2021年,与1990年相比,因大量饮酒导致的全球LC死亡人数略有增加。ASDR和年龄标准化DALYs率的EAPC分别为-1.48和-1.70。男性是高危人群,低中SDI地区是高危地区。因大量饮酒导致的LC疾病负担在GBD各地区和各国之间差异很大。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,2022年至2050年全球死亡和DALYs病例仍将增加。
1990年至2021年期间,虽然与大量饮酒相关的LC总体负担在逐渐下降,但明显的地区和性别差异仍然存在。因大量饮酒导致的LC年死亡人数持续上升,尤其是在男性和低中SDI地区。强调需要针对高危地区和人群制定更有效的公共卫生政策,以减轻与酒精相关的LC负担。