Comprehensive age-period-cohort analysis of global pancreatitis burden and socioeconomic disparities (1990-2021).

BACKGROUND

Pancreatitis is a major global health issue, with a rising incidence, intricate management needs, and considerable mortality.This study examines the effects of age, period, birth cohort, and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) on the burden of pancreatitis in the world and regions' component countries. It also views high alcohol use as a big risk factor.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2021 analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Pancreatitis incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were analyzed by application of the age-period cohort model. Countries were grouped by SDI, and gender-specific trends were explored. Bayesian meta-regression was additionally conducted on the health disparity attributable to high alcohol use.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2021 pancreatitis cases increased globally from 1.73 million (1.50-2.00 million) to 2.75 million (2.41-3.13 million), deaths increased from 68, 490 (60,748-78,272) to 122,416 (109,848-141,362), and DALYs from 2.58 million (2.27- 2.99 million) to 4.10 million (3.65-4.68 million). However, population growth and aging have contributed to a substantial absolute increase in the disease burden. High alcohol use accounted for approximately 16% of global pancreatitis-related deaths, with males bearing a significantly higher proportion of the burden than females. In high and high-middle SDI regions, reductions in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR reflected the effectiveness of healthcare improvements. Conversely, low and low-middle SDI regions showed rising incidence, mortality, and DALY burdens, reflecting disparities in healthcare resources and preventive measures. Regionally, Eastern Europe reported the highest pancreatitis burden, including DALYs, incidence, and mortality, primarily associated with high alcohol consumption. Conversely, high-income Asia Pacific had the lowest rates on most of these indicators. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis showed a substantial increase in the burden of pancreatitis occurring in older age groups and recent birth cohorts, especially in low SDI regions. These observations illustrate rising divergences between high and low SDI localities, necessitating the development of prevention and intervention tactics narrowed to the huge and rising inequalities.

CONCLUSION

Pancreatitis is still a major global health problem with marked disparities between regions. High SDI areas have managed to alleviate the burden through effective political action, but low SDI areas face a growing set. Addressing risk factors such as high alcohol use and providing better healthcare in the low SDI areas are all important. Targeted interventions, better surveillance and greater understanding of the disease are perhaps the areas that future efforts should address.