Coulibaly Thierry Yerema, Managi Shunsuke
Departments of Civil Engineering, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-Ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan.
Urban Institute, Fukuika, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 22;15(1):26583. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-11488-8.
Cambodia is experiencing rapid urbanization, posing significant risks to its natural capital (NC) and long-term sustainability. The absence of robust estimates quantifying the environmental costs of urban expansion has perpetuated this challenge. Here, we present an integrated approach to evaluate the sustainability of urban growth in Cambodia by (1) delineating the boundaries of major cities, (2) assessing urban expansion dynamics, and (3) quantifying the associated depletion of NC from 2010 to 2020. Using Landsat imagery at 30 m resolution and machine learning techniques, we identified clusters of built-up areas to map urban growth. By employing the UN Inclusive Wealth Index framework, we estimate the economic cost of NC depletion, providing insights into the sustainability of urban development. Results reveal that, while urban expansion has maintained positive inclusive wealth growth, NC density has declined by an average of 3% between 2010 and 2020. Projections using a cellular automata model suggest that, if current trends continue, urban expansion could place over USD 56 million worth of ecosystems at risk of depletion by 2030. These findings underscore the need for targeted investments and protective measures to safeguard NC and ensure sustainable urban growth.
柬埔寨正在经历快速城市化，这对其自然资本（NC）和长期可持续性构成了重大风险。由于缺乏对城市扩张环境成本进行量化的可靠估算，这一挑战一直存在。在此，我们提出一种综合方法来评估柬埔寨城市增长的可持续性，具体包括：（1）划定主要城市的边界；（2）评估城市扩张动态；（3）量化2010年至2020年期间相关的自然资本消耗。利用30米分辨率的陆地卫星图像和机器学习技术，我们识别出建成区集群以绘制城市增长图。通过采用联合国包容性财富指数框架，我们估算了自然资本消耗的经济成本，为城市发展的可持续性提供了见解。结果显示，虽然城市扩张保持了包容性财富的正增长，但2010年至2020年间自然资本密度平均下降了3%。使用元胞自动机模型的预测表明，如果当前趋势持续下去，到2030年城市扩张可能使价值超过5600万美元的生态系统面临枯竭风险。这些发现强调了需要进行有针对性的投资和采取保护措施，以保护自然资本并确保城市的可持续增长。
