Dai Chunli, Ward Jones Melissa K, van der Sluijs Jurjen, Nesterova Nina, Howat Ian M, Liljedahl Anna K, Higman Bretwood, Freymueller Jeffrey T, Kokelj Steven V, Sriram Sindhura
School of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences (FFGS), University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 23;16(1):6795. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-62017-0.
Retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) is a mass-wasting process characterized by upslope backwasting and rapid thawing of ice-rich permafrost. High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from ArcticDEM enable the volumetric and soil organic carbon quantification of medium to large disturbance areas undergoing RTS ( ≥10,000 m) for the Northern Hemisphere. Using DEM time-series analysis and deep learning, we retrieve a total of 2747 disturbance areas undergoing active RTS with a total volume loss of (317.0 ± 0.3) × 10m between 2012 and 2022. Here we show that climatic drivers of RTS activity exhibit latitudinal and regional variations, specifically, the number of precipitation-driven RTS decreases linearly as latitudes increase, whereas temperature-driven RTS increases sharply. Finally, we estimate that 96% of detected RTS thawed ~1.95 × 10 Pg carbon per year, equivalent to ~0.2% of annual gradual thaw emission estimates. Our results highlight the complexity of regional RTS dynamics and the importance of high resolution, long-term monitoring efforts.
退行性融冻滑塌（RTS）是一种大规模物质移动过程，其特征是富含冰的多年冻土向上坡方向逆向侵蚀和快速融化。北极数字高程模型（ArcticDEM）生成的高分辨率数字高程模型能够对北半球正在经历RTS（≥10,000平方米）的中到大尺度扰动区域进行体积和土壤有机碳量化。通过数字高程模型时间序列分析和深度学习，我们总共检索到2747个正在经历活跃RTS的扰动区域，在2012年至2022年期间总体积损失为（317.0±0.3）×10立方米。我们在此表明，RTS活动的气候驱动因素呈现出纬度和区域差异，具体而言，降水驱动的RTS数量随纬度增加呈线性减少，而温度驱动的RTS则急剧增加。最后，我们估计，96%检测到的RTS每年解冻约1.95×10Pg碳，相当于年度逐渐解冻排放估计量的约0.2%。我们的结果凸显了区域RTS动态的复杂性以及高分辨率、长期监测工作的重要性。
