Ahmad Aqeel, Khan Muhammad Suleman, Ozsahin Dilber Uzun, Ahmad Hijaz, Munir Arshad, Radwan Taha
Department of Mathematics, Ghazi University, D G Khan, 32200, Pakistan.
Mathematics Research Center, Near East University, Nicosia/TRNC, Mersin 10, 99138, Mersin, Turkey.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 25;15(1):27063. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-09182-w.
This study's primary objective is to investigate the connection between carbon emissions and global warming by tracking how these emissions causes the climatic changes spread across the environment. Based on theories established from past observations that the effect rates for various factors, a mathematical model has been built to examine the varying rates of global warming in connection to the carbon emissions. A fractional-order model with mathematical solutions for continuous monitoring is then created utilizing the Caputo operator. In addition to studying the model's endemic places, the next generation technique is employed to determine the model's reproduction number in these endemic sites. Sensitivity analysis was developed to identify the most sensitive parameters and examine how altering these variables affects the outcomes in different situations. A qualitative and statistical analysis of a proposed model is conducted with special focus on the existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness of the solutions. At endemic sites, the model's local stability is verified using both theoretical and statistical methods. To assess the global stability of the model, the Lyapunov derivative at the endemic point is employed. In this study, the effect of the fractional operator on a generalized power law kernel for continuous global warming monitoring related to carbon emissions is investigated. For the said purpose, numerical simulations under a two-step Lagrange polynomial technique are employed. The simulations' outcomes show how different parameters affect the variations in global warming caused by carbon emissions. The simulations aim to replicate the effects of global warming caused by both natural processes and human activities, while also exploring various strategies for promoting a healthier environment. Our findings suggest that this research will be valuable in addressing global warming through carbon emissions and in developing effective management plans.
本研究的主要目的是通过追踪碳排放如何导致气候变化在环境中扩散,来调查碳排放与全球变暖之间的联系。基于过去观测建立的理论,即各种因素的影响率,构建了一个数学模型来研究与碳排放相关的全球变暖变化率。然后利用卡普托算子创建了一个具有连续监测数学解的分数阶模型。除了研究模型的流行地点外,还采用下一代技术来确定这些流行地点的模型繁殖数。开展敏感性分析以识别最敏感的参数,并研究改变这些变量如何在不同情况下影响结果。对所提出的模型进行定性和统计分析,特别关注解的存在性、唯一性、正性和有界性。在流行地点,使用理论和统计方法验证模型的局部稳定性。为了评估模型的全局稳定性,采用流行点处的李雅普诺夫导数。在本研究中,研究了分数算子对与碳排放相关的连续全球变暖监测的广义幂律核的影响。为此,采用了两步拉格朗日多项式技术下的数值模拟。模拟结果显示了不同参数如何影响由碳排放引起的全球变暖变化。这些模拟旨在复制自然过程和人类活动引起的全球变暖影响,同时探索促进更健康环境的各种策略。我们的研究结果表明,这项研究对于通过碳排放应对全球变暖以及制定有效的管理计划将具有重要价值。