Unpacking fitness differences between two invaders in a multispecies context.

Ecosystems are constantly exposed to newcoming strains or species. Which newcomer will be able to invade a resident multi-species community depends on the invader's relative fitness. Classical fitness differences between two growing strains are measured using the exponential model. Here we complement this approach, developing a more explicit framework to quantify fitness differences between two co-invading strains, based on the replicator equation. By assuming that the resident species' frequencies remain constant during the initial phase of invasion, we are able to determine the invasion fitness differential between the two strains, which drives growth rate differences post-invasion. We then apply our approach to a critical current global problem: invasion of the gut microbiota by antibiotic-resistant strains of the pathobiont Escherichia coli, using previously-published data. Our results underscore the context-dependent nature of fitness and demonstrate how species frequencies in a host environment can explicitly modulate the selection coefficient between two strains. This mechanistic framework can be augmented with machine-learning algorithms and multi-objective optimization to predict relative fitness in new environments, to steer selection, and design strategies to lower resistance levels in microbiomes.