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为何人在21世纪的水文学中至关重要:从洪水预报与预警中汲取的经验教训。

Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning.

作者信息

Speight Linda

机构信息

School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

出版信息

Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2025 Jul 31;383(2302):20240293. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2024.0293.

Abstract

In a world facing the challenge of adapting to a rapidly changing climate, hydrologists have an important role in ensuring the risks from floods, droughts and polluted water are addressed. Despite ongoing scientific advances, and a growing focus on people-centred hydrology that supports solutions to global hydrological challenges, there remains a disconnect between hydrological expertise, policy and practice. The best hydrological models in the world are no use to society if they do not result in effective action. The devastating impacts from recent unprecedented flood events in Europe highlight the urgency of addressing this challenge. Reflecting on the communication of flood risk during extreme events offers valuable insights into why people matter to closing the gap between hydrological expertise and society. People are considered here in respect to four themes: people and hydrological science, people and hydrology education, people and hydrological decision making and people within the discipline of hydrology. As a discipline hydrology must better articulate why it matters to people to allow it to overcome the challenges of complacency and complexity in risk communication. Hydrologists themselves must be flexible and innovative, developing new skills sets to support continued interdisciplinary collaborations and expertise to better integrate people into hydrology.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Hydrology in the 21st century: challenges in science, to policy and practice'.

摘要

在一个面临适应快速变化气候挑战的世界中,水文学家在确保应对洪水、干旱和水污染风险方面发挥着重要作用。尽管科学不断进步,且越来越注重以支持全球水文挑战解决方案的以人为本的水文学,但水文专业知识、政策与实践之间仍存在脱节。如果世界上最好的水文模型不能带来有效行动,对社会就毫无用处。近期欧洲前所未有的洪水事件造成的毁灭性影响凸显了应对这一挑战的紧迫性。反思极端事件期间洪水风险的沟通,能为理解为何人对于弥合水文专业知识与社会之间的差距至关重要提供宝贵见解。这里从四个主题来考量人:人与水文科学、人与水文教育、人与水文决策以及水文学科领域内的人。作为一门学科,水文学必须更好地阐明其对人的重要性,以便克服风险沟通中自满和复杂的挑战。水文学家自身必须灵活且富有创新精神,培养新的技能组合以支持持续的跨学科合作,并掌握将人更好地融入水文学的专业知识。本文是“21世纪的水文学:科学、政策与实践中的挑战”讨论会议题的一部分。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2f08/12311491/e41228c15408/rsta.2024.0293.f001.jpg

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