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[关于人类毛发比较中证据价值评估的实验统计研究]

[Experimental statistical studies on the evaluation of the value of evidence in the comparison of human hair].

作者信息

Haller B

出版信息

Arch Kriminol. 1985 Sep-Oct;176(3-4):109-16.

PMID:4074069
Abstract

In this paper a statistical experiment is presented which allows to estimate the evidential value of human head hair comparison. The procedure described in detail was essentially the same as in case-work. Questioned hairs were taken randomly from 20 different persons out of a pool of 111 individuals. From each of the 20 persons one, three an five hairs respectively were compared consectively with samples from 100 different individuals. The results were classified as follows: a) "matching" and b) "similar" - if the hair(s) may originate form that person; c) "not matching" - if an individual is excluded as possible source. In our experiment about 95% of the samples (persons) were excluded as possible source of a questioned hair on the average. This is a mean value which may vary considerably in a distinct case. The experiment, its results and problems are discussed.

摘要

本文介绍了一项统计实验,该实验可用于估计人类头发比对的证据价值。详细描述的程序与实际办案中的程序基本相同。从111人的样本库中随机抽取20个不同人的可疑毛发。分别从这20个人中的每个人身上取出1根、3根和5根毛发,依次与来自100个不同个体的样本进行比对。结果分类如下:a)“匹配”;b)“相似”——如果毛发可能来自那个人;c)“不匹配”——如果排除某个人作为可能的来源。在我们的实验中,平均约95%的样本(人)被排除为可疑毛发的可能来源。这是一个平均值,在个别案例中可能会有很大差异。文中讨论了该实验、其结果及问题。

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