Barca Maria Lage, Aakhus Eivind, Langballe Ellen Melbye, Hansen Thomas, Aunsmo Ragnhild Holmberg, Selbæk Geir, Krokstad Steinar, Strand Bjørn Heine
The Norwegian National Centre for Ageing and Health, Vestfold Hospital Trust, Tønsberg, Norway.
Department of Geriatric Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
PLoS One. 2025 Jul 31;20(7):e0328413. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0328413. eCollection 2025.
To investigate patterns and correlates of depression among Norwegian older adults (age 70+), 1995-2019, and estimate the number of older adults with depression by 2050.
Population-based cross-sectional study.
Three surveys of the Trøndelag Health Study (Norway): HUNT2 (1995-96), HUNT3 (2007-08), and HUNT4 (2017-19). 22,822 home dwellers aged 70 + who participated in at least one of the three surveys.
Depression was defined as scores ≥8 on the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Covariates included sex, age, education, marital status, and reported loneliness. Depression prevalence (%) was standardized to the Norwegian population by age, sex, and education for years close to the initial HUNT survey year (1995, 2006, and 2016). Projection of the total number of individuals with depression in the coming decades were estimated. Predictors of depression were analyzed with logistic regression and the potential reduction in depression prevalence by reducing the prevalence of loneliness was estimated.
Standardized depression prevalence decreased from 16.7% (HUNT2) to 14.9% (HUNT3), and 11.5% (HUNT4), and was highest among men, the oldest (85+), the lower-educated, and in earlier surveys (all p < 0.001). Living alone was also associated with higher depression prevalence, but only if loneliness was present. While depression rates are falling, we expect the number of depressed individuals to double by 2050 as the population ages.
Depression rates among adults aged 70 + decreased by 50% from 1995 to 2019, but less so among the oldest old. The rates were highest among single older men. Despite decreasing prevalence, the number of depressed older adults will increase significantly in the future. Given the major individual and societal costs of depression, this trend is alarming for societies preparing for the challenges posed by population aging. This can, however, be addressed by addressing predictors of depression.
调查1995年至2019年挪威70岁及以上老年人抑郁症的模式及相关因素，并估计到2050年抑郁症老年人的数量。
基于人群的横断面研究。
特隆赫姆郡健康研究（挪威）的三项调查：HUNT2（1995 - 1996年）、HUNT3（2007 - 2008年）和HUNT4（2017 - 2019年）。22822名70岁及以上的居家居民参与了这三项调查中的至少一项。
抑郁症定义为医院焦虑抑郁量表抑郁分量表得分≥8分。协变量包括性别、年龄、教育程度、婚姻状况和报告的孤独感。在接近HUNT初始调查年份（1995年、2006年和2016年）时，按年龄、性别和教育程度将抑郁症患病率（%）标准化为挪威人口数据。估计未来几十年抑郁症患者总数的预测值。采用逻辑回归分析抑郁症的预测因素，并估计通过降低孤独感患病率来降低抑郁症患病率的可能性。
标准化抑郁症患病率从HUNT2的16.7%降至HUNT3的14.9%，再降至HUNT4的11.5%，在男性、年龄最大者（85岁及以上）、受教育程度较低者以及早期调查中患病率最高（所有p<0.001）。独居也与较高的抑郁症患病率相关，但前提是存在孤独感。虽然抑郁症发病率在下降，但随着人口老龄化，预计到2050年抑郁症患者数量将翻倍。
1995年至2019年，70岁及以上成年人的抑郁症发病率下降了50%，但年龄最大者下降幅度较小。单身老年男性的发病率最高。尽管患病率在下降，但未来抑郁症老年人的数量将显著增加。鉴于抑郁症给个人和社会带来的巨大成本，这一趋势对正为应对人口老龄化挑战做准备的社会来说令人担忧。然而，这可以通过解决抑郁症的预测因素来应对。
