Swerdlow A J
Br J Cancer. 1985 Dec;52(6):893-900. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1985.274.
The seasonality of presentation of 1019 skin melanomas in Oxford Region 1952-1975, and of 1,523 squamous cell and 4,865 basal cell skin cancers in the region 1967-1975, were analysed using data from the Oxford Cancer Registry. For males and for females, for each of the histologies there was a peak of presentations during July to September. In further subdivisions of the data by age and by skin site, a summer or autumn peak was generally present except where numbers of cases were small. Amplitude of seasonality did not show consistent differences by histology, sex, or skin site, but for both melanoma and squamous cell cancer amplitude was greater for persons aged under 55 years than for older persons. There was no substantial seasonality for presentations of cancers of all non-skin sites in the region. The seasonality of presentation of skin cancers appeared not to be mainly an artefact of the cancer registration process or of organisational aspects of medical care attendance, and only a small proportion of it could be explained as an artefact of the longer term increase in registrations of these cancers. The visibility of skin cancers might have lead to seasonal variation in rapidity of presentation to medical care, for instance for social reasons, or the results might reflect a short induction period effect of exposure to a seasonal insult, perhaps sun radiation, on the aetiology, growth or symptoms of skin cancers; for melanoma there is previous evidence suggesting a short induction period aetiological effect of sun radiation.
利用牛津癌症登记处的数据,分析了1952年至1975年牛津地区1019例皮肤黑色素瘤以及1967年至1975年该地区1523例鳞状细胞皮肤癌和4865例基底细胞皮肤癌的发病季节性。对于男性和女性,每种组织学类型的发病高峰均出现在7月至9月。在按年龄和皮肤部位进一步细分数据时,除病例数较少的情况外,通常都存在夏季或秋季高峰。季节性幅度在组织学类型、性别或皮肤部位方面未显示出一致的差异,但对于黑色素瘤和鳞状细胞癌,55岁以下人群的季节性幅度大于年龄较大者。该地区所有非皮肤部位癌症的发病不存在明显的季节性。皮肤癌发病的季节性似乎并非主要是癌症登记过程或医疗就诊组织方面的人为因素造成的,而且只有一小部分可以解释为这些癌症登记长期增加的人为因素。皮肤癌的可见性可能导致就医速度出现季节性变化,例如出于社会原因,或者结果可能反映了季节性损伤(可能是太阳辐射)对皮肤癌病因、生长或症状的短期诱导期效应;对于黑色素瘤,先前有证据表明太阳辐射存在短期诱导期病因学效应。