Yang Jimei, Jin Minghui, Liu Kai-di, Yao Lianxiao, Cheng Liang
School of Economics and Management, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China.
Qingdao Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao, China; Center for Yellow River Ecosystem Products, Shandong University, Qingdao, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Sep;392:126776. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126776. Epub 2025 Jul 31.
Climate risk is one of the important challenges facing the globe. To address the risks of ecological degradation and climate change, China has designated National Key Ecological Functional Areas (NKEFAs) in successive batches. As an important ecological policy for achieving environmental protection and spatial management, their establishment plays a crucial role in improving ecological conditions and mitigating climate risk. This study treats the establishment of NKEFAs as a quasi-natural experiment. It uses 1990-2022 panel data from prefecture-level cities and employs a staggered difference-in-difference (DID) model to assess the impact of NKEFAs on climate risk. It is found that the establishment of NKEFAs reduces climate risk, and this finding passes a series of robustness tests. NKEFAs reduce climate risk mainly by optimizing industrial structure, improving environmental quality, and reducing CO emissions. Further analysis reveals that NKEFAs have significant heterogeneity impact on reducing climate risk across resource carrying capacity, resource endowment, and urban location. It shows a pronounced reducing effect in windbreak-and-sand-fixing and soil-and-water conservation ecological functional areas, and the policy's impact on reducing climate risk is more significant for non-resource-based cities, eastern cities, and central cities. Based on this, future efforts should focus on strengthening the long-term development of NKEFAs, promoting the coordination between ecological conservation and industrial planning, and enhancing environmental governance capacity to accelerate the low-carbon transition. Differentiated policies should be formulated according to local ecological and climatic conditions to achieve effective and sustained climate risk management.
气候风险是全球面临的重要挑战之一。为应对生态退化和气候变化风险，中国已陆续划定了国家重点生态功能区。作为实现环境保护和空间治理的一项重要生态政策，其设立对于改善生态状况和缓解气候风险发挥着关键作用。本研究将国家重点生态功能区的设立视为一项准自然实验。利用1990 - 2022年地级市面板数据，采用交错双重差分（DID）模型评估国家重点生态功能区对气候风险的影响。研究发现，国家重点生态功能区的设立降低了气候风险，这一发现通过了一系列稳健性检验。国家重点生态功能区主要通过优化产业结构、改善环境质量和减少碳排放来降低气候风险。进一步分析表明，国家重点生态功能区在降低气候风险方面，在资源承载能力、资源禀赋和城市区位方面存在显著的异质性影响。在防风固沙和水土保持生态功能区显示出明显的降低效果，且该政策对非资源型城市、东部城市和中部城市降低气候风险的影响更为显著。基于此，未来应着力加强国家重点生态功能区的长效发展，促进生态保护与产业规划的协调，提升环境治理能力以加速低碳转型。应根据当地生态和气候条件制定差异化政策，以实现有效且持续的气候风险管理。
