Zhang Chunbo, Hu Mingming, Sprecher Benjamin, Sacchi Romain, Yang Xining, Yang Shiyu, Verhagen Teun Johannes, Zhang Chi, Steubing Bernhard, Tukker Arnold
Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands.
Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
Nat Commun. 2025 Aug 4;16(1):7153. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-62442-1.
Building energy renovation mitigates carbon emissions but often increases material demand and financial costs. This work addresses this problem by investigating the carbon, material, and economic footprints of various renovation scenarios in the Dutch residential sector from 2015 to 2050. Results show that, compared to the baseline, façade refurbishment could lower cumulative lifecycle emissions by up to 0.3%, while raising material use by 21-25% and costs by 2-6%. Sensitivity analysis indicates that refurbishing the heating system offers greater potential for reducing carbon emissions. Rebuilding could cut emissions by up to 17% under an ambitious energy transition, though this would triple material use and construction costs. Circularity strategies could offset up to 89% of the material footprint and reduce carbon emissions by up to 23%. Nonetheless, considerable cost increases from renovations remain inevitable, even with advanced material circulation systems, suggesting circular renovation strategies with enhanced incentives as concerted action.
建筑节能改造可减少碳排放，但往往会增加材料需求和财务成本。这项工作通过调查2015年至2050年荷兰住宅部门各种改造方案的碳足迹、材料足迹和经济足迹来解决这一问题。结果表明，与基线相比，外墙翻新可将累计生命周期排放量降低多达0.3%，同时材料使用量增加21%-25%，成本增加2%-6%。敏感性分析表明，翻新供暖系统在减少碳排放方面具有更大潜力。在雄心勃勃的能源转型下，重建可将排放量削减多达17%，不过这将使材料使用量和建设成本增加两倍。循环利用策略可抵消多达89%的材料足迹，并将碳排放减少多达23%。尽管如此，即使采用先进的材料循环系统，翻新带来的成本大幅增加仍不可避免，这表明需要采取协同行动，实施具有更强激励措施的循环翻新策略。
