Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2 (Bio-Science Park), 2333 CC Leiden, The Netherlands.
Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, TU Delft, Landbergstraat 15, 2628 CE Delft, The Netherlands.
Environ Sci Technol. 2022 Jun 21;56(12):8561-8570. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.1c06362. Epub 2022 May 12.
To achieve climate neutrality, future urban heating systems will need to use a variety of low-carbon heating technologies. The transition toward low-carbon heating technologies necessitates a complete restructuring of the heating system, with significant associated material requirements. However, little research has been done into the quantity and environmental impact of the required materials for this system change. We analyzed the material demand and the environmental impact of the transition toward low-carbon heating in the Netherlands across three scenarios based on the local availability and capacity for sources of low-carbon heat. A wide range of materials are included, covering aggregates, construction materials, metals, plastics, and critical materials. We find that while the Dutch policy goal of reducing GHG emissions by 90% before 2050 can be achieved if only direct emissions from the heating system are considered, this is no longer the case when the cradle-to-gate emissions from the additional materials, especially insulation materials, are taken into account. The implementation of these technologies will require 59-63 megatons of materials in the period of 2021-2050, leading to a maximum reduction of 62%.
为实现气候中和，未来的城市供热系统将需要使用多种低碳供热技术。向低碳供热技术的过渡需要对供热系统进行全面重组，这需要大量相关的材料。然而，对于这一系统变革所需材料的数量和环境影响，研究甚少。我们根据低碳热能来源在当地的可用性和产能，基于三个情景分析了荷兰向低碳供热过渡的材料需求和环境影响。研究涵盖了广泛的材料，包括骨料、建筑材料、金属、塑料和关键材料。我们发现，如果仅考虑供热系统的直接排放，荷兰到 2050 年减少 90%温室气体排放的政策目标是可以实现的，但如果考虑到额外材料（尤其是绝缘材料）的摇篮到大门排放，情况就不再如此。在 2021 年至 2050 年期间，这些技术的实施将需要 5900 万至 6300 万吨材料，这将导致最大减排 62%。
