Transitioning to Low-Carbon Residential Heating: The Impacts of Material-Related Emissions.

To achieve climate neutrality, future urban heating systems will need to use a variety of low-carbon heating technologies. The transition toward low-carbon heating technologies necessitates a complete restructuring of the heating system, with significant associated material requirements. However, little research has been done into the quantity and environmental impact of the required materials for this system change. We analyzed the material demand and the environmental impact of the transition toward low-carbon heating in the Netherlands across three scenarios based on the local availability and capacity for sources of low-carbon heat. A wide range of materials are included, covering aggregates, construction materials, metals, plastics, and critical materials. We find that while the Dutch policy goal of reducing GHG emissions by 90% before 2050 can be achieved if only direct emissions from the heating system are considered, this is no longer the case when the cradle-to-gate emissions from the additional materials, especially insulation materials, are taken into account. The implementation of these technologies will require 59-63 megatons of materials in the period of 2021-2050, leading to a maximum reduction of 62%.