StatModPredict: A user-friendly R-Shiny interface for fitting and forecasting with statistical models.

BACKGROUND

Many disciplines, such as public health, rely on statistical time series models for real-time and retrospective forecasting efforts; however, effectively implementing related methods often requires extensive programming knowledge. Therefore, such tools remain largely inaccessible to those with limited programming experience, including students training in modeling, as well as professionals and policymakers seeking to forecast an epidemic's trajectory. To address the need for accessible and intuitive forecasting applications, we present StatModPredict, an R-Shiny dashboard for conducting robust forecasting analysis utilizing auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), and Meta's Prophet model.

METHODS

StatModPredict supports robust real-time forecasting and retrospective model analysis, including fitting, forecasting, evaluation, visualization, and comparison of results from four popular models. After loading an incident time series data set into the interface, users can easily customize model parameters and forecasting options to obtain the desired output. Additionally, StatModPredict offers multiple editable figures for, but not limited to, the time series data, the forecasts, and model fit and forecast metrics. Users can also upload external forecasts produced elsewhere and evaluate their performance alongside the dashboard's built-in models, thereby enabling direct comparisons. We provide a detailed demonstration of the dashboard's features using publicly available annual HIV case data in the US. A video tutorial is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgZOvqhvqw8.

CONCLUSIONS

By eliminating programming barriers, StatModPredict facilitates exploration and use by students training in forecasting, as well as professionals and policymakers aiming to forecast epidemic trajectories. Additionally, the flexibility in the required input data structure and parameter specification process extends the application of StatModPredict to any discipline that employs time series data. By offering this open-source interface, we aim to broaden access to forecasting tools, promote hands-on learning, and foster contributions from users across disciplines.