Jin Cheng, Danesh Yazdi Mahdieh, He Hanbing, Castro Edgar, Schwartz Joel D, Wright Robert O, Wei Yaguang
Department of Environmental Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, UK.
Program in Public Health, Department of Family, Population, and Preventive Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA.
Environ Res. 2025 Aug 5:122520. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2025.122520.
Existing studies on the health effects of smoke fine particulate matters (PM), a primary emission from wildfires, have often lacked comparison with other air pollutants, focused primarily on acute exposures, and not applied causal methods. In the present study, we obtained county-level, three-year average cardiovascular hospitalization rates for Medicare beneficiaries across the contiguous US between 2006-2016 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These data were linked with spatio-temporal estimates of smoke PM, non-smoke PM, nitrogen dioxide (NO), ozone, and county-level confounders. We used a difference-in-differences method to evaluate causal effects of three-year moving average exposures (lag 0-2, 1-3, 2-4, or 3-5 year) to the four pollutants on hospitalization rates for total cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its two major subtypes: heart disease and stroke. We found that, for total CVD, the absolute change in hospitalization rate associated with smoke PM increased with longer lag periods: from -0.879 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.528, 0.771) at lag 0-2 to 7.538 (95% CI: 4.594, 10.481) at lag 3-5 per 1 μg/m increase in exposure per 1,000 people. The effect of non-smoke PM was smaller and diminished over time. NO and ozone had even smaller effects per 1 part per billion increases in exposure. Similar patterns were seen for heart disease. For stroke, all pollutants had minimal and mostly non-significant effects. More rural and lower-income counties experienced greater risks. These findings suggested the need to prioritize wildfire management in addition to traditional air quality control strategies.
关于野火主要排放物烟雾细颗粒物(PM)对健康影响的现有研究,往往缺乏与其他空气污染物的比较,主要集中在急性暴露方面,且未应用因果分析方法。在本研究中,我们从疾病控制与预防中心获取了2006年至2016年美国本土医疗保险受益人的县级三年平均心血管住院率。这些数据与烟雾PM、非烟雾PM、二氧化氮(NO)、臭氧的时空估计值以及县级混杂因素相关联。我们使用了差分法来评估三年移动平均暴露(滞后0 - 2年、1 - 3年、2 - 4年或3 - 5年)于这四种污染物对总心血管疾病(CVD)及其两种主要亚型:心脏病和中风住院率的因果效应。我们发现,对于总CVD,与烟雾PM相关的住院率绝对变化随着滞后时间的延长而增加:每增加1 μg/m,每1000人暴露量从滞后0 - 2年时的 -0.879(95%置信区间[CI]:-2.528,0.771)增加到滞后3 - 5年时的7.538(95% CI:4.594,10.481)。非烟雾PM的影响较小且随时间减弱。每十亿分之一暴露量增加时,NO和臭氧的影响更小。心脏病方面也观察到类似模式。对于中风,所有污染物的影响极小且大多不显著。农村和低收入县面临的风险更大。这些发现表明,除了传统的空气质量控制策略外,还需要优先进行野火管理。