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medRxiv. 2025 Jul 23:2025.07.21.25331778. doi: 10.1101/2025.07.21.25331778.
Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) improve type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction beyond clinical risk factors but perform poorly in non-European populations, where T2D burden is often higher, undermining their global clinical utility.
We conducted the largest global effort to date to harmonize T2D genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta- analyses across five ancestries-European (EUR), African/African American (AFR), Admixed American (AMR), South Asian (SAS), and East Asian (EAS)-including 360,000 T2D cases and 1·8 million controls (41% non-EUR). We constructed ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSs in training datasets including 11,000 T2D cases and 32,000 controls, and validated their performance in independent datasets including 39,000 T2D cases and 126,000 controls of diverse ancestries. In the All of Us Research Program, we compared these PRSs to those from the Polygenic Score Catalog and assessed their ability to predict diabetes micro- and macrovascular complications.
Ancestry-specific PRSs showed limited prediction power for T2D in AFR, AMR, and SAS compared to EUR and EAS. In contrast, multi-ancestry PRSs, built using GWAS data from five ancestries, substantially improved T2D prediction across all ancestries. Compared to those in the interquartile range, individuals at the 97·5 percentile of their PRSs had a 6-fold increased T2D risk in AMR, EAS, and EUR, and ≥3-fold in AFR and SAS. These PRSs were also associated with the development of microvascular complications and outperformed all previously reported PRSs for all ancestries.
We developed and extensively validated the most up-to-date T2D PRSs across diverse ancestry groups. These PRSs are publicly available to support further evaluation of their clinical utility in diverse ancestries.
多基因风险评分(PRSs)在2型糖尿病(T2D)预测方面超越了临床风险因素,但在非欧洲人群中表现不佳,而这些人群的T2D负担往往更高,这削弱了它们在全球范围内的临床实用性。
我们开展了迄今为止规模最大的全球研究,对来自欧洲(EUR)、非洲/非裔美国人(AFR)、混血美洲人(AMR)、南亚(SAS)和东亚(EAS)五个祖先群体的T2D全基因组关联研究(GWAS)荟萃分析进行了统一,其中包括360,000例T2D病例和180万对照(41%为非欧洲人)。我们在包含11,000例T2D病例和32,000例对照的训练数据集中构建了特定祖先群体和多祖先群体的PRSs,并在包含39,000例T2D病例和126,000例不同祖先群体对照的独立数据集中验证了它们的性能。在“我们所有人研究计划”中,我们将这些PRSs与多基因评分目录中的评分进行了比较,并评估了它们预测糖尿病微血管和大血管并发症的能力。
与EUR和EAS相比,特定祖先群体的PRSs在AFR、AMR和SAS中的T2D预测能力有限。相比之下,使用来自五个祖先群体的GWAS数据构建的多祖先群体PRSs显著提高了所有祖先群体的T2D预测能力。与四分位间距内的个体相比,PRSs处于第97.5百分位的个体在AMR、EAS和EUR中的T2D风险增加了6倍,在AFR和SAS中增加了≥3倍。这些PRSs还与微血管并发症的发生有关,并且在所有祖先群体中均优于所有先前报道的PRSs。
我们开发并广泛验证了适用于不同祖先群体的最新T2D PRSs。这些PRSs已公开提供,以支持进一步评估它们在不同祖先群体中的临床实用性。