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使用全国青少年纵向调查数据对犯罪行为进行的动态系统分析。

A dynamical systems analysis of criminal behavior using national longitudinal survey of youth data.

作者信息

McMillon David, Morenoff Jeffrey, Simon Carl, Lane Erin

机构信息

Department of Economics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.

Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Aug 8;20(8):e0324014. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324014. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0324014
PMID:40779580
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12334011/
Abstract

Building on previous work on the spread and sustenance of crime, we construct and analyze a dynamical systems model of criminal involvement, arrest, desistance, and rehabilitation to be estimated empirically using interviews in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. We examine how marginal increases in flows between states interact to decrease or increase the long-run level of crime, and whether this varies by subgroup. We study how observed racial disparities along certain pathways interact to generate macro-level disparities in criminal involvement as measured by arrest and self-report. Finally, we discuss the implications of the model for a broader policy debate on crime control and for competing explanations of the Black-White gap in criminal involvement. We find, among other conclusions, that marginal independent increases in first-time arrest rates (but not arrest rates for repeat offenders) increase long-run crime for all subgroups; that long-run crime levels for Black men are most sensitive to initial flows into crime and arrest and to rehabilitation; and that among people with no arrest history, Black women are significantly more likely than other subgroups to desist the following year.

摘要

基于先前关于犯罪传播与持续存在的研究，我们构建并分析了一个关于犯罪参与、逮捕、停止犯罪和改过自新的动态系统模型，该模型将使用《全国青年纵向调查》中的访谈数据进行实证估计。我们研究了不同状态之间流量的边际增加如何相互作用以降低或提高长期犯罪水平，以及这是否因亚组而异。我们研究了沿着某些路径观察到的种族差异如何相互作用，从而在以逮捕和自我报告衡量的犯罪参与方面产生宏观层面的差异。最后，我们讨论了该模型对于更广泛的犯罪控制政策辩论以及对犯罪参与方面黑人和白人差距的不同解释的意义。我们发现，除其他结论外，首次逮捕率（而非惯犯逮捕率）的边际独立增加会使所有亚组的长期犯罪增加；黑人男性的长期犯罪水平对初始犯罪和逮捕流量以及改过自新最为敏感；在没有逮捕记录的人群中，黑人女性比其他亚组在次年停止犯罪的可能性显著更高。

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