Department of Mathematics and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.
Department of Mathematics, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, and Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2014 Apr 2;9(4):e88923. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0088923. eCollection 2014.
The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.
犯罪的蔓延是一个复杂的、动态的过程，需要采用系统层面的方法。在这里，我们仅使用抽象的转移参数构建和分析了一系列犯罪蔓延、监禁和累犯的动力系统模型。为了找到这些参数之间的一般模式——与底层细节无关的模式——我们计算了这些模型中高犯罪率和低犯罪率平衡点的解析表达式。我们使用这些表达式，特别是检查了更长的刑期和更高的监禁率对犯罪率流行率的影响，并对三振出局政策的影响进行了后续分析。
