Qi Luzhuang, Liang Peng
School of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi, China.
School of Accounting, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Aug 11;20(8):e0316211. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0316211. eCollection 2025.
Addressing population aging has emerged as a paramount national strategic priority. Against the backdrop of a continual rise in population aging and considerable escalation in labor costs within China, this study aims to investigate whether firms, confronted with the burden of labor costs, intensify their tax avoidance motives to generate a "stimulating effect" or whether they are compelled to adapt traditional factors, thereby reducing tax avoidance and exerting a "restraining effect". To address this inquiry, we empirically examine the impact of population aging on corporate tax avoidance and its underlying mechanisms utilizing a sample of non-financial listed companies in China's A-share market spanning from 2008 to 2023. Our findings substantiate that the level of population aging significantly diminishes firms' tax avoidance motives, confirming the presence of a "restraining effect". Mechanism tests unveil that population aging, through capital-labor substitution, fosters research and development innovation and improves production efficiency, thus curbing firms' tax avoidance behavior and affirming the existence of the "factor substitution effect" "innovation capacity effect" and "resource allocation effect". Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the inhibitory impact of population aging on corporate tax avoidance is more pronounced in labor-intensive industries, entities with limited financing capacity, weak financial conditions, and adverse external financial conditions. By examining the economic ramifications of population aging from a micro-level perspective on corporate financial decision-making and enriching the existing literature on corporate tax avoidance through a population economics lens, this study provides valuable insights for firms undergoing transformation and informs policy formulation in response to the challenges posed by population aging.
应对人口老龄化已成为一项至关重要的国家战略重点。在中国人口老龄化持续加剧以及劳动力成本大幅上升的背景下，本研究旨在探究面临劳动力成本负担的企业是否会强化其避税动机以产生“刺激效应”，或者它们是否被迫调整传统因素，从而减少避税行为并产生“抑制效应”。为了回答这一问题，我们利用2008年至2023年中国A股市场非金融上市公司样本，实证检验了人口老龄化对企业避税行为及其潜在机制的影响。我们的研究结果证实，人口老龄化程度显著降低了企业的避税动机，证实了“抑制效应”的存在。机制检验表明，人口老龄化通过资本-劳动力替代，促进了研发创新并提高了生产效率，从而抑制了企业的避税行为，并证实了“要素替代效应”“创新能力效应”和“资源配置效应”的存在。异质性分析表明，人口老龄化对企业避税行为的抑制作用在劳动密集型行业、融资能力有限的企业、财务状况不佳的企业以及外部金融环境不利的企业中更为明显。通过从微观层面考察人口老龄化对企业财务决策的经济影响，并从人口经济学角度丰富现有的企业避税文献，本研究为正在转型的企业提供了有价值的见解，并为应对人口老龄化带来的挑战的政策制定提供了参考。
