Yang Kairan, Zhou Lijun, Huang Hongyin, Zheng Xiao, Guo Hengtao, Zhang Xiang
College of Physical Education, Hunan Normal University, Hunan, 410012, China.
Xiangsihu College of GuangXi Minzu University, Guangxi, 530000, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 11;15(1):29329. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-11321-2.
With the growing trend of global population aging, all facets of society are facing unprecedented challenges. How to enhance public enthusiasm for physical activity and how to promote public health through exercise have become an increasingly prominent topic of interest in academia. This paper uses literature analysis, policy analysis, system dynamics and other research methods to analyze the core indicators and key elements of exercise-based health promotion based on social support theory. Taking China as an example, this paper establishes a system dynamics model and conducts simulation analysis by adjusting the proportion of government support, social support and individual support. Research result: (1) under the existing development model, the proportion of the population exercising in China will be 40.39% in 2030, and the healthy-life expectancy will reach 72.66 years old, which can meet the stage requirements of the relevant policies; (2) Increasing the inputs of government support, social support, and individual support, respectively, can all have a positive impact on the exercise-based health promotion; (3) The Coordinated development mode yields the most favorable outcomes for health promotion through physical activity, as its impact effectiveness is significantly higher than that of the single-element priority development mode(Government support priority mode, Social support priority mode, Social support priority mode) Research conclusion: The overall development of exercise-based health promotion must consider the interaction of government support, social support and individual support, and allocate resources rationally.
随着全球人口老龄化趋势的加剧，社会的各个方面都面临着前所未有的挑战。如何提高公众对体育活动的热情以及如何通过运动促进公众健康已成为学术界日益突出的关注话题。本文运用文献分析、政策分析、系统动力学等研究方法，基于社会支持理论分析以运动为基础的健康促进的核心指标和关键要素。以中国为例，本文建立了系统动力学模型，并通过调整政府支持、社会支持和个人支持的比例进行模拟分析。研究结果：（1）在现有发展模式下，到2030年中国参与运动的人口比例将达到40.39%，健康预期寿命将达到72.66岁，能够满足相关政策的阶段性要求；（2）分别增加政府支持、社会支持和个人支持的投入，都能对以运动为基础的健康促进产生积极影响；（3）协同发展模式对通过体育活动促进健康产生的效果最为有利，因为其影响效果显著高于单因素优先发展模式（政府支持优先模式、社会支持优先模式、个人支持优先模式）。研究结论：以运动为基础的健康促进的整体发展必须考虑政府支持、社会支持和个人支持的相互作用，并合理分配资源。
