Ellis Emilie E, Antão Laura H, Davrinche Andréa, Mäkinen Jussi, Rees Mark, Conenna Irene, Huikkonen Ida-Maria, Leinonen Reima, Pöyry Juha, Suuronen Anna, Laine Anna-Liisa, Saastamoinen Marjo, Vanhatalo Jarno, Roslin Tomas
Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
Nat Commun. 2025 Aug 12;16(1):7063. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-62216-9.
As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their climatic niches, leading to the warming of ecological communities (thermophilisation). We currently have little understanding of the population-level processes driving this community-level warming, particularly at rapidly warming high latitudes. Using 30 years of high-resolution moth monitoring data across a 1200 km latitudinal gradient in Finland, we find that higher latitude communities are experiencing more rapid thermophilisation. We attribute this spatial variation to colonisation-extinction dynamics, both for the full community and for thermal affinity groups. Our findings reveal that latitudinal variation in the pathways underpinning thermophilisation is the net outcome of opposite forces: in the north, community warming is driven by the extinction of cold-affiliated species, while in the south it is driven by high colonisation rates of warm-affiliated species. Thus, we show how species' thermal affinities influence community reorganisation and highlight the elevated extinction risk among cold-affiliated species.
随着气候变暖，物种正在转移其分布范围以适应其气候生态位，导致生态群落变暖（嗜热化）。目前，我们对驱动这种群落水平变暖的种群水平过程了解甚少，尤其是在快速变暖的高纬度地区。利用芬兰1200公里纬度梯度上30年的高分辨率蛾类监测数据，我们发现高纬度群落正在经历更快的嗜热化。我们将这种空间变化归因于定居 - 灭绝动态，无论是对于整个群落还是热亲和性群体。我们的研究结果表明，嗜热化背后途径的纬度变化是相反力量的净结果：在北方，群落变暖是由冷亲和物种的灭绝驱动的，而在南方则是由暖亲和物种的高定居率驱动的。因此，我们展示了物种的热亲和性如何影响群落重组，并突出了冷亲和物种面临的更高灭绝风险。
