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利用MaxEnt对当前和未来气候条件下四种入侵植物栖息地扩张机制的比较分析

Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt.

作者信息

Lin Mao, Ye Xingzhuang, Zhao Zixin, Chen Shipin, Liu Bao

机构信息

College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.

出版信息

Plants (Basel). 2025 Aug 1;14(15):2363. doi: 10.3390/plants14152363.

Abstract

As China's first systematic assessment of high-risk invaders, this study addresses a critical knowledge gap identified in the National Invasive Species Inventory, in which four invasive species (, , , and ) are prioritized due to CNY 2.6 billion annual ecosystem damages in China. By coupling multi-species comparative analysis with a parameter-optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model integrating climate, soil, and topographical variables in China under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 126/245/585 scenarios, we reveal divergent expansion mechanisms (e.g., 247 km faster northward shift in than ) that redefine invasion corridors in the North China Plain. Under current conditions, the suitable habitats of these species span from 92° E to 129° E and 18° N to 49° N, with high-risk zones concentrated in central and southern China, including the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan region and the North China Plain. Temperature variables (Bio: Bioclimatic Variables; Bio6, Bio11) were the primary contributors based on permutation importance (e.g., Bio11 explained 56.4% for ), while altitude (e.g., 27.3% for ) and UV-B (e.g., 16.2% for ) exerted lower influence. Model validation confirmed high accuracy (mean area under the curve (AUC) > 0.86 and true skill statistic (TSS) > 0.6). By the 2090s, all species showed net habitat expansion overall, although exhibited net total contractions during mid-century under the SSP126/245 scenarios, experienced reduced total suitability during the 2050s-2070s despite high-suitability growth, and and expanded significantly in both total and highly suitable habitat. All species shifted their distribution centroids northward, aligning with warming trends. Overall, these findings highlight the critical role of temperature in driving range dynamics and underscore the need for latitude-specific monitoring strategies to mitigate invasion risks, providing a scientific basis for adaptive management under global climate change.

摘要

作为中国对高风险入侵物种的首次系统评估,本研究填补了《国家入侵物种名录》中确定的关键知识空白,该名录中由于在中国每年造成26亿元人民币的生态系统损害,四种入侵物种(、、和)被列为优先关注对象。通过将多物种比较分析与在共享社会经济路径(SSP)126/245/585情景下整合中国气候、土壤和地形变量的参数优化最大熵(MaxEnt)模型相结合,我们揭示了不同的扩张机制(例如,比向北移动速度快247公里),这些机制重新定义了华北平原的入侵走廊。在当前条件下,这些物种的适宜栖息地范围从东经92°到129°,北纬18°到49°,高风险区域集中在中国中部和南部,包括云贵川地区和华北平原。基于排列重要性,温度变量(Bio:生物气候变量;Bio6、Bio11)是主要贡献因素(例如,Bio11对的解释率为56.4%),而海拔(例如,对的解释率为27.3%)和UV - B(例如,对的解释率为16.2%)的影响较小。模型验证证实了高准确性(平均曲线下面积(AUC)> 0.86,真实技能统计量(TSS)> 0.6)。到2090年代,所有物种总体上都显示出栖息地净扩张,尽管在SSP126/245情景下,在本世纪中叶出现了净总收缩,在2050年代至2070年代期间,尽管适宜性高的栖息地有所增长,但总适宜性却有所下降,而和在总适宜栖息地和高度适宜栖息地都显著扩张。所有物种的分布中心都向北移动,与变暖趋势一致。总体而言,这些发现突出了温度在驱动分布范围动态变化中的关键作用,并强调了需要针对特定纬度的监测策略来降低入侵风险,为全球气候变化下的适应性管理提供了科学依据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/646f/12348541/2465ab40149b/plants-14-02363-g001.jpg

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