Yang Wenjun, Sun Shuxia, Wang Naixian, Fan Peixian, You Chao, Wang Renqing, Zheng Peiming, Wang Hui
Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Shandong Provincial Engineering and Technology Research Center for Vegetation Ecology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Qingdao Forest Ecology Research Station of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Qingdao Key Laboratory of Forest and Wetland Ecology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China.
Qingdao Forest Ecology Research Station of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Qingdao Key Laboratory of Forest and Wetland Ecology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 10;903:166260. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166260. Epub 2023 Aug 12.
Climate change and biological invasions pose significant threats to the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. With the rapid development of international trade and economy, China has become one of the countries most seriously affected by invasive alien plants (IAPs), especially the Asteraceae IAPs. For this end, we selected occurrence data of 31 Asteraceae IAPs and 33 predictor variables to explore the distribution pattern under current climate using MaxEnt model. Based on future climate data, the changes in distribution dynamics of Asteraceae IAPs were predicted under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). The results indicated that the potential distribution of IAPs was mainly in the southeast of China under current climate. Climatic variables, including precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19), temperature annual range (BIO07) and annual precipitation (BIO12) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution. Besides, human footprint (HFP), population (POP) and soil moisture (SM) also had a great contribution for shaping the distribution pattern. With climate change, the potential distribution of IAPs would shift to the northwest and expand. It would also accelerate the expansion of most Asteraceae IAPs in China. The results of our study can help to understand the dynamics change of distributions of Asteraceae IAPs under climate change in advance so that early strategies can be developed to reduce the risk and influence of biological invasions.
气候变化和生物入侵对生物多样性保护及生态系统服务的提供构成了重大威胁。随着国际贸易和经济的快速发展，中国已成为受外来入侵植物（IAPs）影响最严重的国家之一，尤其是菊科入侵植物。为此，我们选取了31种菊科入侵植物的发生数据和33个预测变量，利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）探究其在当前气候条件下的分布格局。基于未来气候数据，预测了菊科入侵植物在两个时间段（2041—2060年和2081—2100年）以及三种气候变化情景（SSP126、SSP245和SSP585）下分布动态的变化。结果表明，在当前气候条件下，入侵植物的潜在分布主要在中国东南部。气候变量，包括最冷月降水量（BIO19）、年温度范围（BIO07）和年降水量（BIO12）是影响潜在分布的主要因素。此外，人类足迹（HFP）、人口（POP）和土壤湿度（SM）对分布格局的形成也有很大贡献。随着气候变化，入侵植物的潜在分布将向西北转移并扩大。这也将加速中国大多数菊科入侵植物的扩张。我们的研究结果有助于提前了解气候变化下菊科入侵植物分布的动态变化，从而制定早期策略以降低生物入侵的风险和影响。
