气候变化与人口:21世纪决定性挑战的人口统计学视角

Climate change and population: Demographic perspectives on the 21st century's defining challenge.

作者信息

Hoffmann Roman, Andriano Liliana, Striessnig Erich, Rüttenauer Tobias, Borderon Marion, Grace Kathryn

机构信息

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OeAW, University of Vienna), Laxenburg, Austria.

Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

出版信息

Vienna Yearb Popul Res. 2024;22:1-22. doi: 10.1553/p-nfjc-z82h. Epub 2024 Dec 15.

Abstract

Climate change represents one of the most pressing challenges for societies in the 21st century. This special issue of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research (VYPR) brings together interdisciplinary contributions from 51 authors to explore the demographic dimensions of climate change. In many ways, human populations are at the center of the current climate crisis. On the one hand, anthropogenic forces are responsible for the unprecedented changes in the climate system that are currently being observed. It is the burning of fossil fuels that has significantly increased greenhouse gas concentrations, driving global warming and altering natural climate patterns. On the other hand, human populations are also profoundly affected by these changes, as they are facing increased risks from extreme weather events, rising sea levels and shifting ecosystems, which, in turn, impact livelihoods, food and water security, and health and well-being. This special issue provides a comprehensive overview of both the role of population as a driving force of climate change and the significance of its impacts in the areas of health and mortality, migration, and fertility and reproductive behaviors. In addition to 10 research articles, the special issue features seven debate articles by leading scholars, who provide reflections on the climate-population nexus and the role of demographic science in climate change mitigation. Demography offers a wide range of perspectives and methodological tools to understand and address the climate-population nexus, including in the areas of health and population data, mathematical and statistical modeling, and projections. We advocate for a holistic research perspective that incorporates issues related to increasing climate risks into demographic thinking, and vice versa. A thorough understanding of the intricate relationship between populations, population dynamics and climate change is necessary for the development of effective and equitable mitigation and adaptation strategies that address both global and local challenges over time.

摘要

气候变化是21世纪社会面临的最紧迫挑战之一。《维也纳人口研究年鉴》(VYPR)的这一特刊汇集了51位作者的跨学科贡献,以探讨气候变化的人口维度。在许多方面,人类人口处于当前气候危机的核心。一方面,人为因素是目前正在观察到的气候系统前所未有的变化的原因。正是化石燃料的燃烧显著增加了温室气体浓度,推动了全球变暖并改变了自然气候模式。另一方面,人类人口也受到这些变化的深刻影响,因为他们面临着极端天气事件、海平面上升和生态系统变化带来的风险增加,而这些反过来又影响生计、粮食和水安全以及健康和福祉。本特刊全面概述了人口作为气候变化驱动力的作用及其在健康与死亡率、迁移以及生育率和生殖行为等领域的影响的重要性。除了10篇研究文章外,特刊还刊载了7篇由顶尖学者撰写的辩论文章,他们对气候与人口的关系以及人口科学在缓解气候变化中的作用进行了思考。人口学提供了广泛的视角和方法工具来理解和解决气候与人口的关系,包括在健康与人口数据、数学和统计建模以及预测等领域。我们倡导一种整体研究视角,将与气候风险增加相关的问题纳入人口学思维,反之亦然。要制定有效且公平的缓解和适应策略,以应对随着时间推移出现的全球和地方挑战,就必须深入了解人口、人口动态与气候变化之间的复杂关系。

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