Lam David
Department of Economics and Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104 USA.
Popul Environ. 2023;45(2):10. doi: 10.1007/s11111-023-00422-7. Epub 2023 May 30.
Between 1960 and 2011, world population grew from 3 to 7 billion, an unprecedented rate of population growth that will never be seen again. In spite of the addition of 4 billion people in just 51 years, the world experienced some of the biggest improvements in living standards in human history, with declines in poverty and improvements in food production per capita in all major regions. This paper looks at the period since 2011, during which the world added another billion people. Progress has continued in many areas, with food production continuing to grow faster than population and with continued declines in the proportion of the population in poverty in all regions. Not all trends are positive, however. Progress in food production has slowed, with recent declines in food production per capita in Africa. Prices of food and other commodities have recently hit historic highs. Climate change is a challenge to progress in combatting hunger and poverty, especially in Africa. While climate change will make it harder to meet the needs of Africa's continued population growth in this century, the paper shows that the countries with the highest population growth account for a very small share of global CO emissions. The record of the last six decades suggests that progress can be made to reduce poverty and hunger, even while world population continues to grow, but continued progress will require solutions to climate change that mainly target high-income and middle-income countries.
1960年至2011年间，世界人口从30亿增长到70亿，这一人口增长率史无前例，今后也不会再现。尽管在短短51年内增加了40亿人口，但世界经历了人类历史上一些最大的生活水平改善，所有主要地区的贫困率下降，人均粮食产量提高。本文审视了2011年以来的时期，在此期间世界人口又增加了10亿。许多领域继续取得进展，粮食产量继续以高于人口增长的速度增长，所有地区贫困人口比例持续下降。然而，并非所有趋势都是积极的。粮食生产进展放缓，非洲最近人均粮食产量下降。粮食和其他商品价格最近创下历史新高。气候变化对消除饥饿和贫困的进展构成挑战，尤其是在非洲。虽然气候变化将使满足非洲本世纪持续人口增长的需求变得更加困难，但本文表明，人口增长最快的国家在全球碳排放中所占份额非常小。过去60年的记录表明，即使世界人口继续增长，也能够在减少贫困和饥饿方面取得进展，但要持续取得进展将需要主要针对高收入和中等收入国家的气候变化解决方案。
