Medina John Robert Carabeo, Kawamura Shin'ya, Takeuchi Rie, Cruz Rolando V, Mendoza Johnedel, Hernandez Paul Michael R, Garcia Fernando B, Gregorio Ernesto R, Kobayashi Jun
Institute of Clinical Epidemiology, National Institutes of Health, University of the Philippines Manila, 623 Pedro Gil St, Ermita, Manila, 1000, Metro Manila, Philippines.
Department of Clinical Epidemiology, College of Medicine, University of the Philippines Manila, 547 Pedro Gil St, Ermita, Manila, 1000, Metro Manila, Philippines.
Trop Med Health. 2025 Aug 14;53(1):109. doi: 10.1186/s41182-025-00789-3.
In 2020, there were decreasing trends in reported dengue cases in several countries in the Western Pacific Region, including the Philippines, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, the spatial distribution of dengue incidence and the hotspots were described quarterly in Quezon City from 2019 to 2022, with the unit of analysis being the 142 barangays (small territorial and administrative villages) in Quezon City. The influence of selected environmental and demographic factors on the persistence of dengue was also explored. Surveillance data from the Quezon City Epidemiology and Surveillance Division, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and satellite images of built environments, such as buildings, facilities, and transportation network hubs were processed and analyzed. The local Moran's I statistics performed with 95% confidence level was employed in the identification of local dengue hotspots. Dengue hotspot maps and maps of greenness, surrounding greenness, small building ratios, and the number of transportation network hubs in each barangay (village) of Quezon City were developed. The association of dengue cases with greenness, surrounding greenness, transportation network hubs, small building ratios, and population density was determined through a generalized linear model (GLM). Results revealed that incidence rates of dengue across barangays were spatially heterogeneous, and the dengue hotspots were unstable as they varied quarterly each year. Proximity to surrounding greenness (NDVI 1 km), small building ratio, and presence of transportation network hubs were found to be significantly associated with dengue hotspots. Dengue prevention strategies, such as search-and-destroy activities for breeding sites, are suggested to be implemented regularly in such areas. The study also recommends considering the anticipated increase in dengue hotspots and the significant environmental factors in the development of health promotion and education campaigns.
2020年，在新冠疫情期间，西太平洋区域的几个国家（包括菲律宾）报告的登革热病例呈下降趋势。在本研究中，于2019年至2022年按季度描述了奎松市登革热发病率的空间分布和热点地区，分析单位为奎松市的142个行政区（小型地域和行政村庄）。还探讨了选定的环境和人口因素对登革热持续存在的影响。对奎松市流行病学和监测部门的监测数据、归一化植被指数（NDVI）以及建筑物、设施和交通网络枢纽等建成环境的卫星图像进行了处理和分析。采用置信水平为95%的局部莫兰指数统计来识别当地登革热热点地区。绘制了奎松市每个行政区（村庄）的登革热热点地图以及绿化程度、周边绿化程度、小型建筑比例和交通网络枢纽数量的地图。通过广义线性模型（GLM）确定登革热病例与绿化程度、周边绿化程度、交通网络枢纽、小型建筑比例和人口密度之间的关联。结果显示，各行政区的登革热发病率在空间上存在异质性，且登革热热点地区不稳定，因为它们每年每个季度都有所变化。发现靠近周边绿化区域（NDVI 1公里）、小型建筑比例以及存在交通网络枢纽与登革热热点地区显著相关。建议在此类地区定期开展登革热预防策略，如对滋生地进行搜索和清除活动。该研究还建议在开展健康促进和教育活动时考虑登革热热点地区的预期增加以及重要的环境因素。
