Hierarchical signal amplification for regional infectious disease risk assessment: A multidimensional approach from urban China.

BACKGROUND

Infectious disease surveillance systems face methodological limitations in early warning capabilities, particularly in integrating correlated indicators, assessing healthcare system impacts, and synthesizing diverse data streams into actionable intelligence. We aimed to develop and validate a hierarchical signal amplification algorithm generating daily risk scores for regional infectious disease assessment.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study in Chongqing, China (population 32.1 million; 2023-2024), we constructed a dual-dimensional framework integrating transmission potential (n = 5) and healthcare system impact (n = 8) indicators with nonlinear aggregation mechanisms. The framework was assessed across respiratory infections, intestinal diseases, and hand-foot-and-mouth disease.

RESULTS

The integrated risk assessment system achieved 83.92 % sensitivity and 88.62 % specificity at risk score 5. Detection capabilities varied by disease category: respiratory infections (98.53 % sensitivity), intestinal diseases (89.39 %), and hand-foot-and-mouth disease (65.22 %). Early warning lead times reached 11, 7, and 6 days respectively. System stability was validated through Monte Carlo simulation (consistency index 0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

The hierarchical signal amplification approach transforms diverse surveillance data into a daily regional risk score that provides substantial lead times for preemptive public health action while maintaining signal integrity across multiple transmission patterns.