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开发高分辨率数据以评估印度（1981 - 2021年）气象干旱的时空模式。

Developing high-resolution data to assess spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological drought in India (1981-2021).

作者信息

Jana Arup

机构信息

Research Associate, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110 016, India.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 19;15(1):30283. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13889-1.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-13889-1
PMID:40830165
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12365080/
Abstract

Climate change has a significant impact on India's ecosystem and socioeconomic structure, particularly affecting critical sectors such as agriculture and water resources. This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns and seasonality of temperature and precipitation across India from 1981 to 2021. It also investigates trends and the severity of drought events during this period, providing crucial insights for policymakers. Trends and seasonality in air temperature and precipitation were assessed using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA-5) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated using the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model and CHIRPS data and validated against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope methods were used to analyze drought trends. The analysis was conducted using Google Earth Engine, R, Python, Climate Data Operators, and ArcMap. In this study, SPEI data with a 5 km spatial resolution was developed and validated through correlation maps between the estimated SPEI and CRU-SPEI raster data. The results show rising trends in both temperature and precipitation, with monthly precipitation increasing more sharply at 0.387 mm/year compared to 0.0086 °C/year for temperature. Throughout the study period, regions such as Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of the Northeast consistently exhibited lower SPEI values, indicating higher drought susceptibility in these areas. Sen's slope analysis revealed that from 1981 to 2021, several regions including Rajasthan, western Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and northern Karnataka exhibited a significant decreasing trend in SPEI, indicating intensifying and more frequent drought conditions. These findings highlight the growing impact of climate change in India, evidenced by rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increasing droughts, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive measures and informed policy interventions to address these climatic challenges.

摘要

气候变化对印度的生态系统和社会经济结构产生了重大影响，尤其影响到农业和水资源等关键部门。本研究考察了1981年至2021年期间印度各地气温和降水的时空模式及季节性变化。同时还调查了这一时期干旱事件的趋势和严重程度，为政策制定者提供了重要见解。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料（ERA - 5）和气候灾害小组红外降水与台站数据（CHIRPS）评估了气温和降水的趋势及季节性变化。使用全球陆地蒸发阿姆斯特丹模型和CHIRPS数据计算标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），并根据气候研究单位（CRU）数据集进行验证。采用曼 - 肯德尔法和森斜率法分析干旱趋势。分析使用了谷歌地球引擎、R语言、Python、气候数据操作软件和ArcMap。在本研究中，通过估计的SPEI与CRU - SPEI栅格数据之间的相关图，开发并验证了空间分辨率为5千米的SPEI数据。结果表明，气温和降水均呈上升趋势，月降水量增加更为明显，为每年0.387毫米，而气温为每年0.0086摄氏度。在整个研究期间，古吉拉特邦、北方邦和东北部部分地区等区域的SPEI值一直较低，表明这些地区干旱易感性较高。森斜率分析显示，1981年至2021年期间，包括拉贾斯坦邦、中央邦西部、北方邦东部、马哈拉施特拉邦和卡纳塔克邦北部在内的几个地区的SPEI呈显著下降趋势，表明干旱状况加剧且更加频繁。这些发现凸显了气候变化对印度日益增长的影响，表现为气温上升、降水模式变化和干旱增加，强调迫切需要采取适应性措施和明智的政策干预来应对这些气候挑战。

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