[Analysis and prediction of the disease burden of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021].

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the disease burden of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) among children and adolescents in China and to predict future trends, in order to provide evidence for disease control strategies.

METHODS

Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), joinpoint regression and prediction models were constructed to analyze and forecast the trends in ADHD burden indicators among Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021.

RESULTS

In 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of ADHD among children and adolescents in China increased by 41.46%, 21.44%, and 21.75%, respectively, compared to 1990. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of ADHD showed an overall upward trend across sex and age groups, with a heavier burden among males. The highest incidence was observed in children aged 5-9 years, while the highest prevalence and DALY rates were found in those aged 10-14 years. By 2031, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of ADHD among Chinese children and adolescents are projected to reach 324.88 per 100 000, 3 762.36 per 100 000, and 45.85 per 100 000, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of ADHD among children and adolescents in China have all increased, suggesting that more proactive prevention and intervention measures may be needed to alleviate the disease burden of ADHD in this population.