Yin Yulai, Zhang Xiaoyu
Nankai University School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China.
Graduate School, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 May 26;13:1518536. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1518536. eCollection 2025.
To analyze the changes in the burden of colorectal cancer in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to explore the disease burden across different age groups and sexes by integrating projected data from 2022 to 2036. This study aims to provide a scientific foundation for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.
This study utilized colorectal cancer data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for the period 1990-2021. Trend analysis was conducted using Joinpoint regression, and future burden projections from 2022 to 2036 were made with an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Key indicators analyzed included the Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR), Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR), and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs).
Between 1990 and 2021, the burden of colorectal cancer increased both in China and globally, although notable differences were observed across gender and regions. In Chinese men, the ASIR and ASMR have shown a continuous rise, reaching approximately 50 and 300 per 100,000, respectively, by 2021. Projections indicate that these rates will continue to increase through at least 2036. The ASIR in Chinese women also exhibits an upward trend, whereas the global ASIR for women has declined. From 1990 to 2021, both China and the world experienced a steady rise in ASPR, with minimal fluctuations. In contrast, while the ASDR has decreased in both China and globally, the volatility in China's ASDR is notably more pronounced than that observed worldwide.
The burden of colorectal cancer in China is projected to increase significantly in the coming years, particularly among males and the older adult population. This study provides critical scientific insights for the development of targeted prevention strategies and resource allocation, underscoring the urgent need to enhance early screening initiatives and health education efforts in China.
分析1990年至2021年中国和全球结直肠癌负担的变化，并通过整合2022年至2036年的预测数据，探讨不同年龄组和性别的疾病负担。本研究旨在为制定有针对性的预防和控制策略提供科学依据。
本研究使用了全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库中1990 - 2021年期间的结直肠癌数据。采用Joinpoint回归进行趋势分析，并使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型对2022年至2036年的未来负担进行预测。分析的关键指标包括年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。
1990年至2021年期间，中国和全球的结直肠癌负担均有所增加，尽管在性别和地区间存在显著差异。在中国男性中，ASIR和ASMR呈持续上升趋势，到2021年分别达到每10万人约50例和300例。预测表明，这些比率至少在2036年前将继续上升。中国女性的ASIR也呈上升趋势，而全球女性的ASIR则有所下降。1990年至2021年期间，中国和全球的ASPR均呈稳步上升趋势，波动极小。相比之下，尽管中国和全球的ASDR均有所下降，但中国ASDR的波动明显比全球更为显著。
预计未来几年中国结直肠癌负担将显著增加，尤其是在男性和老年人群体中。本研究为制定有针对性的预防策略和资源分配提供了关键的科学见解，强调了在中国加强早期筛查举措和健康教育工作的迫切需求。
