Radici Andrea, Hammami Pachka, Cannet Arnaud, L'Ambert Grégory, Lacour Guillaume, Fournet Florence, Garros Claire, Guis Hélène, Fontenille Didier, Caminade Cyril
MIVEGEC (Université de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS), Montpellier, France.
ASTRE (CIRAD, INRAE, Université de Montpellier), Montferrier-sur-Lez, France.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Aug;31(8):e70414. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70414.
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a competent vector of arboviruses, such as dengue. After its introduction into southern Europe, this invasive species has been rapidly spreading as well as causing autochthonous cases of arboviral diseases. Both Ae. albopictus presence and potential to transmit arboviruses are facilitated at warm temperatures; hence, global warming is expected to affect their presence in temperate regions. We use a climate- and environmental-driven mechanistic modeling framework to investigate the impact of recent climate change on Ae. albopictus range expansion and its potential to transmit dengue in Western Europe. We simulate climatic suitability, adult density, and dengue transmission risk, which we compare with a large ensemble of entomological and epidemiological observations over the past 20 years. Most importantly, we analyze a novel spatiotemporal dataset of colonized municipalities in metropolitan France to estimate the spread rate of Ae. albopictus and compare it with model predictions. Lastly, we analyze the sensitivity of entomological and epidemiological risk to changes in temperature, rainfall, and human density. Distribution of simulated mosquito populations and dengue transmission risk satisfactorily match entomological and dengue observations for Western Europe (AUC = 0.90 and 0.75 respectively). While lowlands in southern Europe were already climatically suitable for hosting Ae. albopictus around 2010, Western France, together with large populated cities, such as London, Zagreb, and Vienna, has become suitable recently. Importantly, the accelerating colonization of Ae. albopictus in France may be approaching the limit of its theoretical climatic niche; future expansion will depend on the climate-driven enlargement of suitable areas. The area at risk of dengue transmission has recently expanded from the Mediterranean coasts over northern Spain and Western France. The sensitivity analysis suggests that climate change may expose medium-sized cities to the highest epidemiological risk; this finding is consistent with recently reported dengue outbreaks in Europe.
亚洲虎蚊（白纹伊蚊）是登革热等虫媒病毒的有效传播媒介。自其传入南欧后，这种入侵物种迅速扩散，并引发了虫媒病毒疾病的本地病例。温暖的温度有利于白纹伊蚊的生存及其传播虫媒病毒的可能性；因此，全球变暖预计会影响它们在温带地区的分布。我们使用一个由气候和环境驱动的机理建模框架，来研究近期气候变化对白纹伊蚊在西欧的分布扩张及其传播登革热的可能性的影响。我们模拟了气候适宜性、成虫密度和登革热传播风险，并将其与过去20年大量的昆虫学和流行病学观测数据进行比较。最重要的是，我们分析了法国大都市地区已殖民市镇的一个新的时空数据集，以估计白纹伊蚊的传播速度，并将其与模型预测结果进行比较。最后，我们分析了昆虫学和流行病学风险对温度、降雨和人口密度变化的敏感性。模拟的蚊虫种群分布和登革热传播风险与西欧的昆虫学和登革热观测结果匹配良好（曲线下面积分别为0.90和0.75）。虽然南欧的低地在2010年左右就已经在气候上适合白纹伊蚊生存，但法国西部以及伦敦、萨格勒布和维也纳等大型人口城市最近也变得适宜生存。重要的是，白纹伊蚊在法国加速的殖民化可能正接近其理论气候生态位的极限；未来的扩张将取决于气候驱动的适宜区域扩大。登革热传播风险区域最近已从地中海沿岸扩展到西班牙北部和法国西部。敏感性分析表明，气候变化可能使中型城市面临最高的流行病学风险；这一发现与欧洲最近报告的登革热疫情一致。
