The effect of climate change and temperature extremes on populations: a regional case study for Italy.

The Asian tiger mosquito, , has spread widely throughout Italy since its introduction, with significant public health implications. We examine how decadal temperature trends and sub-monthly heatwave events affect its climate-driven geographical distribution and temporal dynamics using a new regional-scale dynamical model. The model is calibrated using [Formula: see text] years of ovitrap data for Emilia-Romagna and reproduces the vector seasonality and, to a lesser extent, its inter-annual variability. Simulated vector density hotspots overlap with densely populated areas in Rome, Milan, Naples, Foggia, Catania, Palermo, Lecce, Cagliari, Genoa, Turin and large urban centres in Emilia-Romagna. Lower risk is simulated over the Central Apennine mountains and the Alps. At decadal time scale, we simulate a lengthening of the active mosquito season by 0.5-3 weeks per decade, with the vector becoming homodynamic in southern Italy. Depending on the climatic setting, heatwaves can increase or reduce vector populations and, in some locations, can temporarily decrease mosquito populations. Such decreases can be followed by a population rebound and overshoot. Given the model's skill in reproducing key spatio-temporal features, there is potential to develop an early warning system to inform control efforts at a national scale.